luckadjusted

Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022

Buccaneers at Steelers, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Buccaneers 20–18, but the Buccaneers played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:24 left): Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 13 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18
Pittsburgh Steelers 20

October 16, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −10

Luck index +73 Steelers very lucky · −73 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 7, Steelers win 3.

  1. 1 TB 33 PIT 10
  2. 2 TB 26 PIT 10
  3. 3 TB 16 PIT 3
  4. 4 TB 22 PIT 12
  5. 5 TB 24 PIT 17
  6. 6 TB 21 PIT 17
  7. 7 TB 12 PIT 9
  8. 8 TB 14 PIT 16
  9. 9 TB 10 PIT 17
  10. 10 TB 10 PIT 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 73% of them, Steelers 27%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+21.1%
Buccaneers by 9–1622.8%
Buccaneers by 1–827.4%
Level after regulation5.1%
Steelers by 1–814.6%
Steelers by 9–166.8%
Steelers by 17+2.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Steelers by 2, without the luck Steelers by 3.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • R. Succop, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Boswell, 55 yds made · 66% expected
  • R. Succop, 54 yds made · 61% expected
  • C. Boswell, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Succop, 24 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 6 for 42 yards, Steelers 7 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:14 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Devin White), 15 yards +5% PIT +2.2 pts
Q1 9:53 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.6 pts
Q1 2:54 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (Tre Norwood), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.4 pts
Q1 1:19 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.8 pts
Q2 6:03 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +1% TB +1.0 pts
Q3 10:59 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Tyson Alualu), 5 yards +4% TB +0.8 pts
Q3 9:36 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.7 pts
Q3 8:29 Defensive Holding on the Steelers, 5 yards +2% TB +1.2 pts
Q3 8:24 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Buccaneers, 5 yards +1% PIT +0.8 pts
Q3 7:26 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% TB +0.1 pts
Q3 7:24 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% TB +3.6 pts
Q3 4:14 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 7 yards +5% PIT +1.2 pts
Q4 5:59 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% PIT +0.8 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 7:24 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% TB TB: Punt
2 Q3 6:16 The Steelers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +9% PIT PIT: Punt
3 Q4 12:14 The Steelers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +10% PIT PIT: Touchdown
4 Q4 10:58 The Steelers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +13% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q4 6:25 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +11% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:38 The Buccaneers’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +10% PIT –
7 Q4 3:07 The Steelers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +11% PIT PIT: End of game
8 Q4 2:15 The Steelers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% PIT PIT: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (PIT SS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Pat Freiermuth (PIT TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • T.J. Watt (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Cameron Sutton (PIT CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ahkello Witherspoon (PIT CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Levi Wallace (PIT CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Jensen (TB C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Josh Wells (TB T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Logan Ryan (TB FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mike Edwards (TB FS), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 45% · Steelers 55%

Final margin
Steelers by 2
Luck in points
1.3 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 3.3
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 73% · Steelers 27% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · Buccaneers · Steelers

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