luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · October 13, 2022–October 17

Week 6 2022: who deserved to win

6 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Colts beat the Jaguars 34–27 in a game they win 25% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 6 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Steelers 20–18 vs Buccaneers 23% 27% Lucky
Jets 27–10 @ Packers 29% 85% Deserved
Giants 24–20 vs Ravens 34% 33% Lucky
Falcons 28–14 vs 49ers 40% 73% Deserved
Patriots 38–15 @ Browns 43% 96% Deserved
Seahawks 19–9 vs Cardinals 43% 83% Deserved

Week 6 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Colts W 34–27 vs Jaguars 25% +75
2 Vikings W 24–16 @ Dolphins 27% +73
3 Steelers W 20–18 vs Buccaneers 27% +73
4 Chargers W 19–16 vs Broncos 32% +68
5 Giants W 24–20 vs Ravens 33% +67
6 Commanders W 12–7 @ Bears 38% +62
7 Bills W 24–20 @ Chiefs 70% +30
8 Eagles W 26–17 vs Cowboys 71% +29
9 Falcons W 28–14 vs 49ers 73% +27
10 Bengals W 30–26 @ Saints 79% +21
11 Seahawks W 19–9 vs Cardinals 83% +17
12 Jets W 27–10 @ Packers 85% +15
13 Rams W 24–10 vs Panthers 91% +9
14 Patriots W 38–15 @ Browns 96% +4
15 Browns L 15–38 vs Patriots 4% −4
16 Panthers L 10–24 @ Rams 9% −9
17 Packers L 10–27 vs Jets 15% −15
18 Cardinals L 9–19 @ Seahawks 17% −17
19 Saints L 26–30 vs Bengals 21% −21
20 49ers L 14–28 @ Falcons 27% −27
21 Cowboys L 17–26 @ Eagles 29% −29
22 Chiefs L 20–24 vs Bills 30% −30
23 Bears L 7–12 vs Commanders 62% −62
24 Ravens L 20–24 @ Giants 67% −67
25 Broncos L 16–19 @ Chargers 68% −68
26 Buccaneers L 18–20 @ Steelers 73% −73
27 Dolphins L 16–24 vs Vikings 73% −73
28 Jaguars L 27–34 @ Colts 75% −75