luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · October 6, 2022–October 10

Week 5 2022: who deserved to win

8 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Colts beat the Broncos 12–9 in a game they win 3% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 5 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Giants 27–22 @ Packers 26% 69% Deserved
Texans 13–6 @ Jaguars 30% 31% Lucky
Cowboys 22–10 @ Rams 34% 32% Lucky
Colts 12–9 @ Broncos 40% 3% Lucky
Jets 40–17 vs Dolphins 41% 91% Deserved

Week 5 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Colts W 12–9 @ Broncos 3% +97
2 Texans W 13–6 @ Jaguars 31% +69
3 Cowboys W 22–10 @ Rams 32% +68
4 Chargers W 30–28 @ Browns 34% +66
5 Eagles W 20–17 @ Cardinals 35% +65
6 Titans W 21–17 @ Commanders 37% +63
7 Ravens W 19–17 vs Bengals 40% +60
8 Saints W 39–32 vs Seahawks 50% +50
9 Chiefs W 30–29 vs Raiders 59% +41
10 Buccaneers W 21–15 vs Falcons 64% +36
11 Giants W 27–22 @ Packers 69% +31
12 49ers W 37–15 @ Panthers 82% +18
13 Patriots W 29–0 vs Lions 88% +12
14 Jets W 40–17 vs Dolphins 91% +9
15 Vikings W 29–22 vs Bears 92% +8
16 Bills W 38–3 vs Steelers 98% +2
17 Steelers L 3–38 @ Bills 2% −2
18 Bears L 22–29 @ Vikings 8% −8
19 Dolphins L 17–40 @ Jets 9% −9
20 Lions L 0–29 @ Patriots 12% −12
21 Panthers L 15–37 vs 49ers 18% −18
22 Packers L 22–27 vs Giants 31% −31
23 Falcons L 15–21 @ Buccaneers 36% −36
24 Raiders L 29–30 @ Chiefs 41% −41
25 Seahawks L 32–39 @ Saints 50% −50
26 Bengals L 17–19 @ Ravens 60% −60
27 Commanders L 17–21 vs Titans 63% −63
28 Cardinals L 17–20 vs Eagles 65% −65
29 Browns L 28–30 vs Chargers 66% −66
30 Rams L 10–22 vs Cowboys 68% −68
31 Jaguars L 6–13 vs Texans 69% −69
32 Broncos L 9–12 vs Colts 97% −97