luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · final

Every upset of 2022, and which were deserved

95 upsets in 2022, 47 of them deserved. The biggest: the Panthers beat the Buccaneers 21–3 (Week 7) as 17% underdogs, and deserved it.

An upset is a win by the underdog of the closing betting line. The line says 101 of these 282 games should have gone to the underdog; 95 did. “Deserved” when the winner takes 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form; “lucky” under 40% (22 of 95).

#GameWhenBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
1 Panthers 21, Buccaneers 3 2022 Week 7 · Oct 23, 2022 17%67%Deserved
2 Jets 20, Bills 17 2022 Week 9 · Nov 6, 2022 21%40%Coin flip
3 Commanders 32, Eagles 21 2022 Week 10 · Nov 14, 2022 21%46%Coin flip
4 Steelers 20, Buccaneers 18 2022 Week 6 · Oct 16, 2022 23%27%Lucky
5 Bears 33, Patriots 14 2022 Week 7 · Oct 24, 2022 24%41%Coin flip
6 Giants 27, Packers 22 2022 Week 5 · Oct 9, 2022 26%69%Deserved
7 Steelers 23, Bengals 20 2022 Week 1 · Sep 11, 2022 29%13%Lucky
8 Cowboys 20, Bengals 17 2022 Week 2 · Sep 18, 2022 29%79%Deserved
9 Jets 27, Packers 10 2022 Week 6 · Oct 16, 2022 29%85%Deserved
10 Commanders 26, Cowboys 6 2022 Week 18 · Jan 8, 2023 29%94%Deserved
11 Texans 13, Jaguars 6 2022 Week 5 · Oct 9, 2022 30%31%Lucky
12 Bears 19, 49ers 10 2022 Week 1 · Sep 11, 2022 32%42%Coin flip
13 Rams 17, Raiders 16 2022 Week 14 · Dec 8, 2022 32%19%Lucky
14 Jets 31, Browns 30 2022 Week 2 · Sep 18, 2022 32%2%Lucky
15 Jaguars 38, Chargers 10 2022 Week 3 · Sep 25, 2022 32%86%Deserved
16 Vikings 33, Bills 30 2022 Week 10 · Nov 13, 2022 32%16%Lucky
17 Seahawks 17, Broncos 16 2022 Week 1 · Sep 12, 2022 33%36%Lucky
18 Bengals 27, Bills 10 2022 Divisional round · Jan 22, 2023 33%76%Deserved
19 Giants 21, Titans 20 2022 Week 1 · Sep 11, 2022 34%47%Coin flip
20 Cardinals 29, Raiders 23 2022 Week 2 · Sep 18, 2022 34%66%Deserved
21 Cowboys 22, Rams 10 2022 Week 5 · Oct 9, 2022 34%32%Lucky
22 Giants 24, Ravens 20 2022 Week 6 · Oct 16, 2022 34%33%Lucky
23 Seahawks 37, Chargers 23 2022 Week 7 · Oct 23, 2022 34%93%Deserved
24 Saints 20, Eagles 10 2022 Week 17 · Jan 1, 2023 34%89%Deserved
25 Lions 20, Packers 16 2022 Week 18 · Jan 8, 2023 34%57%Coin flip
26 Titans 24, Colts 17 2022 Week 4 · Oct 2, 2022 37%79%Deserved
27 Colts 25, Raiders 20 2022 Week 10 · Nov 13, 2022 37%48%Coin flip
28 Giants 20, Commanders 12 2022 Week 15 · Dec 18, 2022 37%47%Coin flip
29 Colts 20, Chiefs 17 2022 Week 3 · Sep 25, 2022 37%5%Lucky
30 Raiders 40, Seahawks 34 2022 Week 12 · Nov 27, 2022 38%86%Deserved
31 Dolphins 21, Bills 19 2022 Week 3 · Sep 25, 2022 38%60%Coin flip
32 Commanders 23, Packers 21 2022 Week 7 · Oct 23, 2022 38%15%Lucky
33 Lions 15, Packers 9 2022 Week 9 · Nov 6, 2022 38%34%Lucky
34 Jaguars 40, Cowboys 34 2022 Week 15 · Dec 18, 2022 38%36%Lucky
35 Falcons 28, 49ers 14 2022 Week 6 · Oct 16, 2022 40%73%Deserved
36 Packers 31, Cowboys 28 2022 Week 10 · Nov 13, 2022 40%46%Coin flip
37 Jaguars 28, Ravens 27 2022 Week 12 · Nov 27, 2022 40%20%Lucky
38 Colts 12, Broncos 9 2022 Week 5 · Oct 6, 2022 40%3%Lucky
39 Cardinals 27, Rams 17 2022 Week 10 · Nov 13, 2022 40%77%Deserved
40 Panthers 30, Seahawks 24 2022 Week 14 · Dec 11, 2022 40%55%Coin flip
41 Packers 26, Dolphins 20 2022 Week 16 · Dec 25, 2022 40%61%Deserved
42 Panthers 10, Saints 7 2022 Week 18 · Jan 8, 2023 40%10%Lucky
43 Jaguars 24, Colts 0 2022 Week 2 · Sep 18, 2022 41%99%Deserved
44 Dolphins 42, Ravens 38 2022 Week 2 · Sep 18, 2022 41%46%Coin flip
45 Jets 24, Steelers 20 2022 Week 4 · Oct 2, 2022 41%56%Coin flip
46 Seahawks 48, Lions 45 2022 Week 4 · Oct 2, 2022 41%87%Deserved
47 Jets 40, Dolphins 17 2022 Week 5 · Oct 9, 2022 41%91%Deserved
48 Giants 23, Jaguars 17 2022 Week 7 · Oct 23, 2022 41%79%Deserved
49 Commanders 17, Colts 16 2022 Week 8 · Oct 30, 2022 41%74%Deserved
50 Browns 32, Bengals 13 2022 Week 8 · Oct 31, 2022 41%81%Deserved
51 Lions 31, Bears 30 2022 Week 10 · Nov 13, 2022 41%48%Coin flip
52 Titans 27, Packers 17 2022 Week 11 · Nov 17, 2022 41%85%Deserved
53 Lions 31, Giants 18 2022 Week 11 · Nov 20, 2022 41%36%Lucky
54 Browns 23, Buccaneers 17 2022 Week 12 · Nov 27, 2022 41%60%Deserved
55 Jaguars 36, Titans 22 2022 Week 14 · Dec 11, 2022 41%93%Deserved
56 Chargers 23, Dolphins 17 2022 Week 14 · Dec 11, 2022 41%76%Deserved
57 Texans 19, Titans 14 2022 Week 16 · Dec 24, 2022 41%34%Lucky
58 Saints 17, Browns 10 2022 Week 16 · Dec 24, 2022 41%53%Coin flip
59 Rams 51, Broncos 14 2022 Week 16 · Dec 25, 2022 41%92%Deserved
60 Texans 32, Colts 31 2022 Week 18 · Jan 8, 2023 41%25%Lucky
61 Browns 26, Panthers 24 2022 Week 1 · Sep 11, 2022 43%97%Deserved
62 Seahawks 19, Cardinals 9 2022 Week 6 · Oct 16, 2022 43%83%Deserved
63 Patriots 38, Browns 15 2022 Week 6 · Oct 16, 2022 43%96%Deserved
64 Jaguars 27, Raiders 20 2022 Week 9 · Nov 6, 2022 43%90%Deserved
65 Panthers 25, Falcons 15 2022 Week 10 · Nov 10, 2022 43%34%Lucky
66 Raiders 22, Broncos 16 2022 Week 11 · Nov 20, 2022 43%55%Coin flip
67 Steelers 24, Colts 17 2022 Week 12 · Nov 28, 2022 43%75%Deserved
68 Bengals 27, Chiefs 24 2022 Week 13 · Dec 4, 2022 43%52%Coin flip
69 Steelers 24, Panthers 16 2022 Week 15 · Dec 18, 2022 43%87%Deserved
70 Jaguars 19, Jets 3 2022 Week 16 · Dec 22, 2022 43%92%Deserved
71 Panthers 37, Lions 23 2022 Week 16 · Dec 24, 2022 43%86%Deserved
72 Giants 31, Vikings 24 2022 Wild Card · Jan 15, 2023 43%49%Coin flip
73 Panthers 22, Saints 14 2022 Week 3 · Sep 25, 2022 44%78%Deserved
74 Jaguars 31, Chargers 30 2022 Wild Card · Jan 14, 2023 44%67%Deserved
75 Ravens 27, Buccaneers 22 2022 Week 8 · Oct 27, 2022 44%79%Deserved
76 Lions 20, Jets 17 2022 Week 15 · Dec 18, 2022 44%68%Deserved
77 Titans 24, Raiders 22 2022 Week 3 · Sep 25, 2022 46%54%Coin flip
78 Seahawks 31, Cardinals 21 2022 Week 9 · Nov 6, 2022 46%99%Deserved
79 Ravens 16, Steelers 14 2022 Week 14 · Dec 11, 2022 46%28%Lucky
80 Giants 19, Panthers 16 2022 Week 2 · Sep 18, 2022 47%74%Deserved
81 Lions 36, Commanders 27 2022 Week 2 · Sep 18, 2022 47%55%Coin flip
82 Broncos 11, 49ers 10 2022 Week 3 · Sep 25, 2022 47%45%Coin flip
83 Falcons 23, Browns 20 2022 Week 4 · Oct 2, 2022 47%53%Coin flip
84 Saints 24, Raiders 0 2022 Week 8 · Oct 30, 2022 47%97%Deserved
85 Panthers 23, Broncos 10 2022 Week 12 · Nov 27, 2022 47%59%Coin flip
86 Seahawks 23, Jets 6 2022 Week 17 · Jan 1, 2023 47%91%Deserved
87 Falcons 27, Seahawks 23 2022 Week 3 · Sep 25, 2022 47%54%Coin flip
88 Packers 14, Buccaneers 12 2022 Week 3 · Sep 25, 2022 47%53%Coin flip
89 Cowboys 23, Giants 16 2022 Week 3 · Sep 26, 2022 47%96%Deserved
90 Cardinals 26, Panthers 16 2022 Week 4 · Oct 2, 2022 47%96%Deserved
91 Chiefs 41, Buccaneers 31 2022 Week 4 · Oct 2, 2022 47%44%Coin flip
92 Broncos 21, Jaguars 17 2022 Week 8 · Oct 30, 2022 47%37%Lucky
93 Browns 24, Commanders 10 2022 Week 17 · Jan 1, 2023 47%90%Deserved
94 Steelers 16, Ravens 13 2022 Week 17 · Jan 1, 2023 47%82%Deserved
95 Chiefs 38, Eagles 35 2022 Super Bowl · Feb 12, 2023 47%82%Deserved

Upsets week by week

Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019

The biggest upsets since 2019 · 2022 luck rankings · Do unlucky teams cover the spread?