luckadjusted

Week 8 2022 · October 27, 2022

Ravens at Buccaneers, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Buccaneers 27–22 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

An off day for the Buccaneers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:10 left): Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 17 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22

October 27, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −2

Luck index +21 Ravens about even · −21 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 8, Buccaneers win 2.

  1. 1 BAL 41 TB 10
  2. 2 BAL 30 TB 7
  3. 3 BAL 30 TB 12
  4. 4 BAL 31 TB 16
  5. 5 BAL 30 TB 19
  6. 6 BAL 24 TB 17
  7. 7 BAL 24 TB 19
  8. 8 BAL 33 TB 31
  9. 9 BAL 23 TB 26
  10. 10 BAL 16 TB 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Buccaneers

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%.

34 points apart for the Buccaneers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Ravens offenseEPA per play gained +0.14 +0.11 better by 0.02
Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed −0.01 +0.14 better by 0.15
Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained −0.01 +0.13 worse by 0.14
Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.14 +0.09 worse by 0.05

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 79% of them, Buccaneers 21%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+31.7%
Ravens by 9–1620.6%
Ravens by 1–824.7%
Level after regulation2.5%
Buccaneers by 1–811.9%
Buccaneers by 9–166.3%
Buccaneers by 17+2.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Ravens by 5, without the luck Ravens by 6.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • R. Succop, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Tucker, 61 yds blocked · 60% expected
  • R. Succop, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • R. Succop, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Tucker, 30 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 7 for 101 yards, Buccaneers 4 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:43 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 5 yards +2% TB +1.1 pts
Q2 7:29 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (James Proche), 10 yards +2% TB +0.9 pts
Q2 6:40 Intentional Grounding on the Ravens (Lamar Jackson), 20 yards +3% TB +2.6 pts
Q2 0:30 Face Mask on the Buccaneers (Joe Tryon-Shoyinka), 15 yards +1% BAL +0.5 pts
Q3 14:13 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.8 pts
Q4 8:48 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Patrick Ricard), 10 yards +5% TB +0.8 pts
Q4 5:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 40 yards +6% TB +2.4 pts
Q4 5:10 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +17% BAL +3.9 pts
Q4 4:57 False Start on the Buccaneers (Leonard Fournette), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.1 pts
Q4 2:00 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Nnamdi Madubuike), 15 yards, wiping out the play +3% BAL +1.1 pts
Q4 0:49 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Patrick Queen), 1 yard 0% TB 0.0 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:47 The Buccaneers fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% BAL TB: Touchdown
2 Q2 2:00 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +8% TB BAL: Missed field goal
3 Q3 4:56 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +10% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q3 1:32 The Ravens converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% BAL BAL: Touchdown
5 Q4 13:22 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% BAL TB: Field goal
6 Q4 7:00 The Ravens converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +8% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 40 yardsJudgment calls +6% TB TB: Field goal
8 Q4 5:10 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +17% BAL BAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Russell Gage (TB WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Logan Ryan (TB FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cameron Brate (TB TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Calais Campbell (BAL DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Josh Bynes (BAL LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 83% · Buccaneers 17%

Final margin
Ravens by 5
Luck in points
1.5 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 6.5
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 79% · Buccaneers 21% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · Ravens · Buccaneers

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