luckadjusted

Week 8 2022 · October 30, 2022

Panthers at Falcons, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Panthers 37–34, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Falcons win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 74 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 63% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (QOT, 5:59 left): E. Pineiro missed 32-yard field goal, worth 38 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final (OT)

Carolina Panthers 34
Atlanta Falcons 37

October 30, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −4.5

Luck index +42 Falcons lucky · −42 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 4, Falcons win 6.

  1. 1 CAR 34 ATL 13
  2. 2 CAR 23 ATL 10
  3. 3 CAR 47 ATL 40
  4. 4 CAR 17 ATL 14
  5. 5 CAR 17 ATL 19
  6. 6 CAR 24 ATL 29
  7. 7 CAR 22 ATL 32
  8. 8 CAR 16 ATL 29
  9. 9 CAR 12 ATL 31
  10. 10 CAR 13 ATL 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 42% of them, Falcons 58%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+9.1%
Panthers by 9–1613.0%
Panthers by 1–818.6%
Level after regulation2.5%
Falcons by 1–823.4%
Falcons by 9–1615.8%
Falcons by 17+17.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.8 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 3, without the luck Panthers by 5.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • Y. Koo, 30 yds made · 98% expected
  • Y. Koo, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 32 yds missed · 96% expected
  • Y. Koo, 41 yds made · 89% expected
  • Extra point missed · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 9 for 74 yards, Falcons 7 for 64 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:30 Face Mask on the Falcons, 15 yards +6% CAR +1.9 pts
Q1 6:50 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Falcons, 9 yards +2% CAR +0.8 pts
Q1 1:15 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.6 pts
Q2 7:08 False Start on the Panthers, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.7 pts
Q2 4:51 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +2% CAR +0.9 pts
Q2 1:55 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Panthers, 10 yards +3% ATL +0.9 pts
Q3 9:35 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Panthers (C.J. Henderson), 10 yards +3% ATL +0.9 pts
Q3 8:24 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Panthers, 5 yards +2% ATL +0.8 pts
Q3 8:15 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% ATL +1.5 pts
Q4 7:33 Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons, 15 yards +4% CAR +1.4 pts
Q4 6:09 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +14% ATL +2.3 pts
Q4 4:11 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Panthers, 5 yards +7% ATL +0.6 pts
Q4 4:07 False Start on the Panthers (Stephen Sullivan), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.4 pts
Q4 2:32 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CAR +0.4 pts
Q4 0:40 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.1 pts
Q4 0:23 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Panthers (D.J. Moore), 15 yards +12% ATL +1.7 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 5% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:51 The Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the FalconsSpecial teams +36% ATL CAR: End of half
2 Q4 9:40 The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +15% ATL ATL: Field goal
3 Q4 5:40 The Panthers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +19% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q4 0:12 The Panthers missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +26% ATL CAR: Missed field goal
5 QOT 9:17 The Falcons converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +15% ATL ATL: Turnover
6 QOT 7:58 The Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% CAR ATL: Field goal
7 QOT 5:59 The game turned hereE. Pineiro missed 32-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +38% ATL –
8 QOT 3:28 The Falcons converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +35% ATL ATL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Casey Hayward (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jaylinn Hawkins (ATL FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jeremy Chinn (CAR FS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Pat Elflein (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 82% · Falcons 18%

Final margin
Falcons by 3
Luck in points
8.8 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 5.8
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 42% · Falcons 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · Panthers · Falcons

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