luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · October 27, 2022–October 31

Week 8 2022: who deserved to win

2 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Broncos beat the Jaguars 21–17 in a game they win 37% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 8 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Commanders 17–16 @ Colts 41% 74% Deserved
Browns 32–13 vs Bengals 41% 81% Deserved
Ravens 27–22 @ Buccaneers 44% 79% Deserved
Saints 24–0 vs Raiders 47% 97% Deserved
Broncos 21–17 @ Jaguars 47% 37% Lucky

Week 8 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Broncos W 21–17 @ Jaguars 37% +63
2 Patriots W 22–17 @ Jets 45% +55
3 Falcons W 37–34 vs Panthers 58% +42
4 49ers W 31–14 @ Rams 63% +37
5 Dolphins W 31–27 @ Lions 66% +34
6 Bills W 27–17 vs Packers 68% +32
7 Commanders W 17–16 @ Colts 74% +26
8 Ravens W 27–22 @ Buccaneers 79% +21
9 Browns W 32–13 vs Bengals 81% +19
10 Seahawks W 27–13 vs Giants 82% +18
11 Vikings W 34–26 vs Cardinals 88% +12
12 Cowboys W 49–29 vs Bears 93% +7
13 Saints W 24–0 vs Raiders 97% +4
14 Eagles W 35–13 vs Steelers 97% +3
15 Titans W 17–10 @ Texans 98% +2
16 Texans L 10–17 vs Titans 2% −2
17 Steelers L 13–35 @ Eagles 3% −3
18 Raiders L 0–24 @ Saints 4% −4
19 Bears L 29–49 @ Cowboys 7% −7
20 Cardinals L 26–34 @ Vikings 12% −12
21 Giants L 13–27 @ Seahawks 18% −18
22 Bengals L 13–32 @ Browns 19% −19
23 Buccaneers L 22–27 vs Ravens 21% −21
24 Colts L 16–17 vs Commanders 26% −26
25 Packers L 17–27 @ Bills 32% −32
26 Lions L 27–31 vs Dolphins 34% −34
27 Rams L 14–31 vs 49ers 37% −37
28 Panthers L 34–37 @ Falcons 42% −42
29 Jets L 17–22 vs Patriots 55% −55
30 Jaguars L 17–21 vs Broncos 63% −63