luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · October 20, 2022–October 24

Week 7 2022: who deserved to win

4 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Cardinals beat the Saints 42–34 in a game they win 10% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 7 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Panthers 21–3 vs Buccaneers 17% 67% Deserved
Bears 33–14 @ Patriots 24% 41% Coin flip
Seahawks 37–23 @ Chargers 34% 93% Deserved
Commanders 23–21 vs Packers 38% 15% Lucky
Giants 23–17 @ Jaguars 41% 79% Deserved

Week 7 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Cardinals W 42–34 vs Saints 10% +90
2 Commanders W 23–21 vs Packers 15% +85
3 Bears W 33–14 @ Patriots 41% +59
4 Titans W 19–10 vs Colts 41% +59
5 Cowboys W 24–6 vs Lions 52% +48
6 Ravens W 23–20 vs Browns 52% +48
7 Dolphins W 16–10 vs Steelers 64% +36
8 Panthers W 21–3 vs Buccaneers 67% +33
9 Jets W 16–9 @ Broncos 75% +25
10 Giants W 23–17 @ Jaguars 79% +21
11 Raiders W 38–20 vs Texans 88% +12
12 Bengals W 35–17 vs Falcons 92% +8
13 Seahawks W 37–23 @ Chargers 93% +7
14 Chiefs W 44–23 @ 49ers 93% +7
15 49ers L 23–44 vs Chiefs 7% −7
16 Chargers L 23–37 vs Seahawks 7% −7
17 Falcons L 17–35 @ Bengals 8% −8
18 Texans L 20–38 @ Raiders 12% −12
19 Jaguars L 17–23 vs Giants 21% −21
20 Broncos L 9–16 vs Jets 25% −25
21 Buccaneers L 3–21 @ Panthers 33% −33
22 Steelers L 10–16 @ Dolphins 36% −36
23 Browns L 20–23 @ Ravens 48% −48
24 Lions L 6–24 @ Cowboys 48% −48
25 Colts L 10–19 @ Titans 59% −59
26 Patriots L 14–33 vs Bears 59% −59
27 Packers L 21–23 @ Commanders 85% −85
28 Saints L 34–42 @ Cardinals 90% −90