luckadjusted

Week 7 2022 · October 23, 2022

Texans at Raiders, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Texans 38–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:29 left): the Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 15 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Houston Texans 20
Las Vegas Raiders 38

October 23, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −7

Luck index +12 Raiders about even · −12 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 1, Raiders win 9.

  1. 1 HOU 14 LV 10
  2. 2 HOU 14 LV 17
  3. 3 HOU 16 LV 21
  4. 4 HOU 13 LV 21
  5. 5 HOU 17 LV 27
  6. 6 HOU 6 LV 17
  7. 7 HOU 17 LV 31
  8. 8 HOU 14 LV 31
  9. 9 HOU 7 LV 30
  10. 10 HOU 0 LV 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 12% of them, Raiders 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+0.8%
Texans by 9–162.2%
Texans by 1–88.6%
Level after regulation1.7%
Raiders by 1–819.4%
Raiders by 9–1625.6%
Raiders by 17+41.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Raiders by 18, without the luck Raiders by 16.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 50 yds made · 79% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 39 yds missed · 90% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 55 yds made · 62% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 35 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 3 for 14 yards, Raiders 5 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:18 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders (Davante Adams), 10 yards +3% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 2:54 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Clelin Ferrell), 10 yards +1% HOU +0.4 pts
Q2 11:17 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders, 9 yards +1% HOU +0.8 pts
Q2 7:35 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +2% HOU +0.9 pts
Q3 2:25 False Start on the Raiders (Jakob Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% HOU +0.8 pts
Q4 15:00 Defensive Offside on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LV +0.5 pts
Q4 11:29 False Start on the Texans, 4 yards · pre-snap +4% LV +0.7 pts
Q4 7:32 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LV +1.9 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:05 The Texans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +12% HOU HOU: Missed field goal
2 Q1 4:44 K. Fairbairn missed 39-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him +13% LV HOU: Touchdown
3 Q2 11:22 The Texans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +10% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q3 13:34 The Texans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +14% HOU HOU: Field goal
5 Q3 3:23 The Texans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% HOU HOU: Touchdown
6 Q3 3:20 The Texans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +13% HOU HOU: Touchdown
7 Q4 11:29 The Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50False Start on the Texans, 4 yardsPre-snap flags +15% LV LV: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:39 The Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the RaidersSpecial teams +9% LV HOU: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Brandon Parker (LV T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Keelan Cole (LV WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Darren Waller (LV TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jayon Brown (LV LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jonathan Greenard (HOU DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Justin Britt (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Tavierre Thomas (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 0% · Raiders 100%

Final margin
Raiders by 18
Luck in points
1.1 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 16.9
Replay with same day's form
Texans 12% · Raiders 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · Texans · Raiders

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