luckadjusted

Week 7 2022 · October 23, 2022

Falcons at Bengals, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Falcons 35–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:35 left): Defensive Offside on the Falcons, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 8 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 17
Cincinnati Bengals 35

October 23, 2022 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −6.5

Luck index +8 Bengals about even · −8 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 1, Bengals win 9.

  1. 1 ATL 19 CIN 13
  2. 2 ATL 16 CIN 18
  3. 3 ATL 21 CIN 27
  4. 4 ATL 10 CIN 17
  5. 5 ATL 9 CIN 20
  6. 6 ATL 17 CIN 31
  7. 7 ATL 17 CIN 34
  8. 8 ATL 10 CIN 30
  9. 9 ATL 10 CIN 35
  10. 10 ATL 14 CIN 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 8% of them, Bengals 92%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+0.5%
Falcons by 9–161.5%
Falcons by 1–85.5%
Level after regulation1.7%
Bengals by 1–817.0%
Bengals by 9–1621.9%
Bengals by 17+51.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 18, without the luck Bengals by 17. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Falcons 3 for 22 yards, Bengals 5 for 17 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:45 False Start on the Bengals, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.6 pts
Q1 2:51 Illegal Shift on the Bengals, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% ATL +2.2 pts
Q1 2:24 False Start on the Bengals (Hayden Hurst), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +1.0 pts
Q2 6:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals, 1 yard +1% ATL +0.6 pts
Q3 9:12 Fair Catch Interference on the Falcons, 15 yards +1% CIN +1.4 pts
Q3 7:35 Defensive Offside on the Falcons, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +8% CIN +4.2 pts
Q4 8:54 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (Clay Johnston), 2 yards 0% ATL +0.2 pts
Q4 0:31 Encroachment on the Falcons, 2 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +2.9 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:17 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +3% CIN ATL: Punt
2 Q1 1:18 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +3% CIN CIN: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:37 The Falcons converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedThe Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% ATL ATL: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:24 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +2% ATL CIN: Punt
5 Q3 14:16 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +2% CIN ATL: Punt
6 Q3 12:08 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +2% ATL CIN: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 11:25 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +4% ATL CIN: Touchdown
8 Q3 7:35 Defensive Offside on the Falcons, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Logan Wilson (CIN LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Isaiah Prince (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Casey Hayward (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 0% · Bengals 100%

Final margin
Bengals by 18
Luck in points
1.0 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 17.0
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 8% · Bengals 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · Falcons · Bengals

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