luckadjusted

Week 7 2022 · October 23, 2022

Seahawks at Chargers, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Chargers 37–23, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Chargers: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Chargers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:36 left): the Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 15 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 37
Los Angeles Chargers 23

October 23, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −5.5

Luck index +7 Seahawks about even · −7 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 9, Chargers win 1.

  1. 1 SEA 51 LAC 13
  2. 2 SEA 43 LAC 14
  3. 3 SEA 47 LAC 23
  4. 4 SEA 41 LAC 20
  5. 5 SEA 33 LAC 16
  6. 6 SEA 34 LAC 20
  7. 7 SEA 27 LAC 17
  8. 8 SEA 23 LAC 16
  9. 9 SEA 29 LAC 27
  10. 10 SEA 28 LAC 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Chargers

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.

50 points apart for the Chargers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained +0.30 +0.13 better by 0.17
Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed −0.16 +0.12 better by 0.28
Chargers offenseEPA per play gained −0.16 +0.16 worse by 0.31
Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.30 +0.11 worse by 0.19

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 93% of them, Chargers 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+65.7%
Seahawks by 9–1617.5%
Seahawks by 1–89.8%
Level after regulation0.8%
Chargers by 1–83.8%
Chargers by 9–161.8%
Chargers by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.7 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 14, without the luck Seahawks by 10.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 46 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Myers, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Myers, 50 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 7 for 68 yards, Chargers 7 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:40 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 11 yards +2% SEA +0.6 pts
Q1 11:37 Offensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 10 yards +3% LAC +0.8 pts
Q1 10:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 14 yards +9% SEA +3.0 pts
Q1 10:05 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Noah Fant), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% LAC +1.4 pts
Q1 4:28 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Jerry Tillery), 11 yards +3% SEA +0.7 pts
Q2 7:37 Offensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (D'Wayne Eskridge), 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% LAC +3.4 pts
Q2 5:43 Fair Catch Interference on the Seahawks, 15 yards +1% LAC +1.4 pts
Q2 0:34 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.1 pts
Q3 13:16 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% SEA +1.6 pts
Q3 6:48 False Start on the Seahawks, 6 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +1.4 pts
Q3 3:48 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Jerry Tillery), 6 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.6 pts
Q4 10:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Derwin James), 13 yards +1% SEA +1.1 pts
Q4 6:12 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks, 15 yards 0% LAC +1.8 pts
Q4 3:34 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Uchenna Nwosu), 2 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% LAC +4.1 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:49 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +7% SEA LAC: Turnover
2 Q1 10:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 14 yardsJudgment calls +9% SEA SEA: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:05 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Noah Fant), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 20 flags in 2485 snaps before, position avg 1 per 282 +8% LAC LAC: Turnover
4 Q1 7:35 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +10% SEA SEA: Touchdown
5 Q1 5:36 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Chargers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% SEA LAC: Turnover
6 Q1 2:43 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Chargers fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% SEA LAC: Touchdown
7 Q2 9:43 The Chargers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +10% LAC LAC: Touchdown
8 Q2 7:37 Offensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (D'Wayne Eskridge), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 276 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +10% LAC LAC: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rashawn Slater (LAC T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Joey Bosa (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Josh Palmer (LAC WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Dustin Hopkins (LAC K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Gabe Jackson (SEA G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rashaad Penny (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Tyler Ott (SEA LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 94% · Chargers 6%

Final margin
Seahawks by 14
Luck in points
3.7 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 10.3
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 93% · Chargers 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · Seahawks · Chargers

More from Week 7 2022