luckadjusted

Week 7 2022 · October 20, 2022

Saints at Cardinals, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals stole one. They beat the Saints 42–34, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

The Cardinals won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 64% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:00 left): Return touchdown by the Cardinals, worth 34 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

New Orleans Saints 34
Arizona Cardinals 42

October 20, 2022 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −2.5

Luck index +90 Cardinals very lucky · −90 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 9, Cardinals win 1.

  1. 1 NO 34 ARI 3
  2. 2 NO 42 ARI 17
  3. 3 NO 37 ARI 15
  4. 4 NO 31 ARI 13
  5. 5 NO 31 ARI 17
  6. 6 NO 30 ARI 19
  7. 7 NO 23 ARI 14
  8. 8 NO 37 ARI 32
  9. 9 NO 22 ARI 19
  10. 10 NO 20 ARI 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Cardinals won on an off day

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 64% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.

54 points apart for the Cardinals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Saints offenseEPA per play gained +0.38 +0.07 better by 0.31
Saints defenseEPA per play allowed +0.21 +0.06 worse by 0.16
Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained +0.21 +0.07 better by 0.14
Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.38 +0.12 worse by 0.26

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 90% of them, Cardinals 10%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+51.7%
Saints by 9–1620.0%
Saints by 1–817.8%
Level after regulation1.4%
Cardinals by 1–86.0%
Cardinals by 9–162.4%
Cardinals by 17+0.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.5 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Cardinals by 8, without the luck Cardinals by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Blankenship, 50 yds made · 66% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • W. Lutz, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • W. Lutz, 45 yds made · 77% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 8 for 49 yards, Cardinals 4 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:12 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ARI +0.6 pts
Q1 7:46 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% ARI +0.7 pts
Q2 6:38 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Justin Evans), 5 yards +7% ARI +1.7 pts
Q2 2:28 Defensive Holding on the Saints, 1 yard 0% ARI 0.0 pts
Q2 0:46 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Dwayne Washington), 8 yards +1% ARI +0.5 pts
Q3 8:58 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.9 pts
Q3 5:34 False Start on the Cardinals (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.8 pts
Q4 14:45 Defensive Holding on the Saints, 5 yards 0% ARI +1.0 pts
Q4 9:45 Face Mask on the Saints (Cameron Jordan), 15 yards 0% ARI +1.7 pts
Q4 7:56 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.8 pts
Q4 5:51 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Marco Wilson), 5 yards 0% ARI +0.9 pts
Q4 1:00 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.8 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:58 R. Blankenship made 50-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 4 of 9 from 45+ before +9% ARI ARI: Field goal
2 Q1 10:21 The Saints converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% NO NO: Turnover
3 Q1 2:13 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +20% ARI NO: Touchdown
4 Q2 11:52 The Saints converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +16% NO NO: Touchdown
5 Q2 6:38 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Justin Evans), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 250 snaps before, position avg 1 per 473 +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown
6 Q2 2:28 The Cardinals’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDefensive Holding on the Saints, 1 yardJudgment calls +6% ARI ARI: Opp touchdown
7 Q2 2:00 The Saints were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the CardinalsSpecial teams +34% ARI NO: Opp touchdown
8 Q2 0:57 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the CardinalsSpecial teams +29% ARI NO: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marquise Brown (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Rodney Hudson (ARI C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Antoine Wesley (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Justin Pugh (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Prater (ARI K), out · 0.3 pts
  • James Conner (ARI RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jarvis Landry (NO WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Paulson Adebo (NO CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Adam Trautman (NO TE), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 31% · Cardinals 69%

Final margin
Cardinals by 8
Luck in points
6.5 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Saints 90% · Cardinals 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · Saints · Cardinals

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