Week 7 2022 · October 23, 2022
Buccaneers at Panthers, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?
The Panthers beat the Buccaneers 21–3 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.
An off day for the Buccaneers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 33%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 83% favorites.
Final
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 |
|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Panthers lucky · −33 Buccaneers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Buccaneers win 3, Panthers win 7.
- 1 TB 30 CAR 12
- 2 TB 15 CAR 6
- 3 TB 27 CAR 24
- 4 TB 21 CAR 23
- 5 TB 13 CAR 16
- 6 TB 24 CAR 31
- 7 TB 10 CAR 20
- 8 TB 7 CAR 20
- 9 TB 5 CAR 23
- 10 TB 9 CAR 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Buccaneers
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 33%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
42 points apart for the Buccaneers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.14 | +0.14 | worse by 0.28 |
| Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.16 | +0.08 | worse by 0.08 |
| Panthers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.16 | +0.01 | better by 0.15 |
| Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.14 | +0.07 | better by 0.21 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Buccaneers win 33% of them, Panthers 67%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 3.9% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 9.4% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 15.4% |
| Level after regulation | 4.2% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 25.0% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 21.4% |
| Panthers by 17+ | 20.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Buccaneers 4 for 30 yards, Panthers 3 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:25 | Illegal Formation on the Buccaneers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +7% CAR +2.4 pts |
| Q2 8:22 | Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TB +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:22 | False Start on the Panthers (Tommy Tremble), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% TB +0.7 pts |
| Q3 2:19 | False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAR +0.7 pts |
| Q4 8:00 | False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAR +0.8 pts |
| Q4 3:38 | Roughing the Kicker on the Buccaneers (Genard Avery), 15 yards | 0% CAR +2.4 pts |
| Q4 1:11 | Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TB +0.9 pts |
Buccaneers penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:45 | M. Evans dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 27 catchable balls before this | +5% CAR | TB: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:10 | The Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% TB | TB: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 0:25 | Illegal Formation on the Buccaneers, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +7% CAR | CAR: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 11:56 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +6% CAR | CAR: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 9:09 | The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +6% TB | CAR: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 0:12 | The Buccaneers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +5% TB | TB: End of half |
| 7 | Q3 7:05 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +6% CAR | TB: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 6:24 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +8% CAR | TB: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Baker Mayfield (CAR QB), out, replaced by p.walker · 4.6 pts
- Jeremy Chinn (CAR FS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out · 0.8 pts
- Pat Elflein (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Pat Elflein (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Carlton Davis (TB CB), out · 0.8 pts
- Ryan Jensen (TB C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Logan Ryan (TB FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Cameron Brate (TB TE), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Buccaneers 0% · Panthers 100%
- Final margin
- Panthers by 18
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for the Buccaneers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Panthers by 19.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Buccaneers 33% · Panthers 67% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · 
Buccaneers · 
Panthers
More from Week 7 2022
- Saints at Cardinals ARI 42–34 · replay 10% for the winner
- Falcons at Bengals CIN 35–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- Browns at Ravens BAL 23–20 · replay 52% for the winner
- Lions at Cowboys DAL 24–6 · replay 52% for the winner
- Packers at Commanders WAS 23–21 · replay 15% for the winner
- Colts at Titans TEN 19–10 · replay 41% for the winner
- Giants at Jaguars NYG 23–17 · replay 79% for the winner
- Texans at Raiders LV 38–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Jets at Broncos NYJ 16–9 · replay 75% for the winner
- Chiefs at 49ers KC 44–23 · replay 93% for the winner
- Seahawks at Chargers SEA 37–23 · replay 93% for the winner
- Steelers at Dolphins MIA 16–10 · replay 64% for the winner
- Bears at Patriots CHI 33–14 · replay 41% for the winner