2022 season · final

Carolina Panthers, 2022: game by game

The Panthers went 7–10 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.3 wins. Luck added 1.7: the 3rd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–5.

Every game

How often the Panthers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Browns	L 24–26	3%	−3
Week 2	@ Giants	L 16–19	26%	−26
Week 3	vs Saints	W 22–14	78%	+22
Week 4	vs Cardinals	L 16–26	4%	−4
Week 5	vs 49ers	L 15–37	18%	−18
Week 6	@ Rams	L 10–24	9%	−9
Week 7	vs Buccaneers	W 21–3	67%	+33
Week 8	@ Falcons	L 34–37	42%	−42
Week 9	@ Bengals	L 21–42	0%	0
Week 10	vs Falcons	W 25–15	34%	+67
Week 11	@ Ravens	L 3–13	6%	−6
Week 12	vs Broncos	W 23–10	59%	+41
Week 14	@ Seahawks	W 30–24	55%	+45
Week 15	vs Steelers	L 16–24	13%	−13
Week 16	vs Lions	W 37–23	86%	+14
Week 17	@ Buccaneers	L 24–30	26%	−26
Week 18	@ Saints	W 10–7	10%	+90

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −3 vs CLE

Wk 2 −26 @ NYG

Wk 3 +22 vs NO

Wk 4 −4 vs ARI

Wk 5 −18 vs SF

Wk 6 −9 @ LA

Wk 7 +33 vs TB

Wk 8 −42 @ ATL

Wk 9 0 @ CIN

Wk 10 +67 vs ATL

Wk 11 −6 @ BAL

Wk 12 +41 vs DEN

Wk 14 +45 @ SEA

Wk 15 −13 vs PIT

Wk 16 +14 vs DET

Wk 17 −26 @ TB

Wk 18 +90 @ NO

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Panthers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.27	+14.2
Judgment calls	+0.08	+5.5
Rest	+0.04	+1.4
Kicks	−0.15	+31.6
3rd & 4th downs	−0.18	−6.3
Drops	−0.31	−18.0