luckadjusted

Week 14 2022 · December 11, 2022

Panthers at Seahawks, Week 14 2022: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Seahawks 30–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:26 left): the Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 14 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 30
Seattle Seahawks 24

December 11, 2022 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −3.5

Luck index +45 Panthers lucky · −45 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 5, Seahawks win 5.

  1. 1 CAR 26 SEA 6
  2. 2 CAR 26 SEA 13
  3. 3 CAR 21 SEA 13
  4. 4 CAR 23 SEA 17
  5. 5 CAR 8 SEA 6
  6. 6 CAR 24 SEA 27
  7. 7 CAR 17 SEA 24
  8. 8 CAR 14 SEA 24
  9. 9 CAR 17 SEA 31
  10. 10 CAR 0 SEA 22

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 55% of them, Seahawks 45%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+11.6%
Panthers by 9–1616.1%
Panthers by 1–821.5%
Level after regulation6.7%
Seahawks by 1–820.0%
Seahawks by 9–1614.6%
Seahawks by 17+9.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.4 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Panthers by 6, without the luck Panthers by 1.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 47 yds made · 80% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Myers, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 39 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 6 for 29 yards, Seahawks 3 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:53 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.7 pts
Q1 8:49 False Start on the Panthers (Tommy Tremble), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q1 5:29 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +1.1 pts
Q2 12:35 Illegal Formation on the Panthers (Joel Iyiegbuniwe), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.5 pts
Q2 7:57 False Start on the Seahawks (Noah Fant), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.3 pts
Q2 6:18 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Uchenna Nwosu), 15 yards +4% CAR +1.3 pts
Q2 3:52 False Start on the Panthers (D.J. Moore), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.7 pts
Q4 3:19 Face Mask on the Seahawks, 15 yards 0% CAR +1.8 pts
Q4 3:12 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.7 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:37 The Panthers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% CAR CAR: Field goal
2 Q2 6:26 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% CAR SEA: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:20 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% SEA SEA: Touchdown
4 Q3 1:41 The Panthers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +7% CAR CAR: Turnover on downs
5 Q3 0:34 D. Metcalf dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 84 catchable balls before this +7% CAR SEA: Punt
6 Q3 0:26 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% SEA SEA: Punt
7 Q4 13:09 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% CAR SEA: Punt
8 Q4 10:25 The Panthers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +7% CAR CAR: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Shelby Harris (SEA DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Xavier Woods (CAR FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Pat Elflein (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 63% · Seahawks 37%

Final margin
Panthers by 6
Luck in points
4.4 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 55% · Seahawks 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2022 games · Panthers · Seahawks

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