luckadjusted

Week 14 2022 · December 11, 2022

Ravens at Steelers, Week 14 2022: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Steelers 16–14, but the Steelers played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:26 left): Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 15 yards, worth 9 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 16
Pittsburgh Steelers 14

December 11, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −1.5

Luck index +72 Ravens very lucky · −72 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 3, Steelers win 7.

  1. 1 BAL 31 PIT 16
  2. 2 BAL 31 PIT 23
  3. 3 BAL 23 PIT 20
  4. 4 BAL 17 PIT 19
  5. 5 BAL 23 PIT 27
  6. 6 BAL 13 PIT 20
  7. 7 BAL 27 PIT 38
  8. 8 BAL 10 PIT 26
  9. 9 BAL 13 PIT 34
  10. 10 BAL 9 PIT 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 28% of them, Steelers 72%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+3.6%
Ravens by 9–167.4%
Ravens by 1–816.0%
Level after regulation4.2%
Steelers by 1–823.5%
Steelers by 9–1623.2%
Steelers by 17+22.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.4 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Ravens by 2, without the luck Ravens by 6.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Tucker, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Boswell, 40 yds blocked · 87% expected
  • J. Tucker, 30 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 5 for 46 yards, Steelers 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 6 yards +3% PIT +0.8 pts
Q2 7:47 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Ravens (Tyus Bowser), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.7 pts
Q2 6:45 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Ravens (Patrick Queen), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.6 pts
Q2 3:29 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Montravius Adams), 5 yards +1% BAL +0.7 pts
Q3 0:30 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +5% BAL +0.9 pts
Q4 13:26 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 15 yards +9% PIT +1.8 pts
Q4 3:17 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Nnamdi Madubuike), 15 yards +5% PIT +1.8 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:20 The Ravens converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +7% BAL BAL: Field goal
2 Q2 4:07 The Ravens converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% BAL BAL: Field goal
3 Q2 0:26 The Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% BAL PIT: Punt
4 Q3 3:12 The Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% BAL PIT: Missed field goal
5 Q4 14:09 The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% PIT PIT: Missed field goal
6 Q4 13:26 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2697 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +9% PIT PIT: Missed field goal
7 Q4 11:24 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +7% BAL PIT: Missed field goal
8 Q4 2:14 The Ravens converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +8% BAL BAL: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 5.3 pts
  • Kevin Zeitler (BAL G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Bynes (BAL LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 53% · Steelers 47%

Final margin
Ravens by 2
Luck in points
4.4 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 6.4
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 28% · Steelers 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2022 games · Ravens · Steelers

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