2022 season · final
Baltimore Ravens, 2022: game by game
The Ravens went 10–7 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.1 wins. Luck added 0.9: the 10th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–5.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.6.
Every game
How often the Ravens win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Jets | W 24–9 | 69% | +31 |
| Week 2 | vs Dolphins | L 38–42 | 54% | −54 |
| Week 3 | @ Patriots | W 37–26 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 4 | vs Bills | L 20–23 | 39% | −39 |
| Week 5 | vs Bengals | W 19–17 | 40% | +60 |
| Week 6 | @ Giants | L 20–24 | 67% | −67 |
| Week 7 | vs Browns | W 23–20 | 52% | +48 |
| Week 8 | @ Buccaneers | W 27–22 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 9 | @ Saints | W 27–13 | 41% | +59 |
| Week 11 | vs Panthers | W 13–3 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 12 | @ Jaguars | L 27–28 | 80% | −80 |
| Week 13 | vs Broncos | W 10–9 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 14 | @ Steelers | W 16–14 | 28% | +72 |
| Week 15 | @ Browns | L 3–13 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 16 | vs Falcons | W 17–9 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 17 | vs Steelers | L 13–16 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 18 | @ Bengals | L 16–27 | 22% | −22 |
| Wild Card | @ Bengals | L 17–24 | 62% | −62 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Ravens’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.27 | +8.5 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.12 | +1.1 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.05 | +7.9 |
| Rest | −0.02 | −0.4 |
| Drops | −0.03 | +2.0 |
| Judgment calls | −0.45 | −3.4 |
| Injuries | −0.65 | −24.5 |