Wild Card 2022 · January 15, 2023
Ravens at Bengals, Wild Card 2022: who deserved to win?
The Bengals beat the Ravens 24–17, but the Ravens played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Bengals.
The Bengals won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bengals were 71% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 11:54 left): Return touchdown by the Bengals, worth 100 points of win probability to the Bengals.
Final
 Baltimore Ravens | 17 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bengals | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +62 Bengals very lucky · −62 Ravens
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ravens win 6, Bengals win 4.
- 1 BAL 31 CIN 10
- 2 BAL 29 CIN 14
- 3 BAL 28 CIN 17
- 4 BAL 20 CIN 12
- 5 BAL 27 CIN 22
- 6 BAL 21 CIN 19
- 7 BAL 13 CIN 16
- 8 BAL 10 CIN 17
- 9 BAL 20 CIN 31
- 10 BAL 10 CIN 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Bengals won on an off day
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
34 points apart for the Bengals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens offenseEPA per play gained | +0.18 | +0.10 | better by 0.08 |
| Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.09 | worse by 0.02 |
| Bengals offenseEPA per play gained | +0.11 | +0.15 | worse by 0.04 |
| Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.18 | +0.07 | worse by 0.11 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ravens win 62% of them, Bengals 38%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ravens by 17+ | 13.1% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 17.1% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 29.5% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 20.5% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 12.0% |
| Bengals by 17+ | 5.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. McPherson, 39 yds made · 88% expected
- J. Tucker, 22 yds made · 100% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Ravens 4 for 36 yards, Bengals 7 for 42 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:05 | Taunting on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 10 yards | +4% CIN +1.3 pts |
| Q1 0:47 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% BAL +1.9 pts |
| Q2 6:41 | Face Mask on the Bengals, 3 yards | +5% BAL +1.9 pts |
| Q3 7:03 | False Start on the Bengals (Ja'Marr Chase), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q3 5:02 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 1 yard | 0% CIN 0.0 pts |
| Q4 8:55 | Roughing the Kicker on the Ravens (Geno Stone), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +3% BAL +1.6 pts |
| Q4 4:34 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 9 yards, wiping out the play | +4% BAL +1.4 pts |
| Q4 3:25 | Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Bengals, 5 yards | +3% BAL +0.5 pts |
| Q4 3:25 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAL +0.2 pts |
| Q4 1:20 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Bengals, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +6% CIN +0.2 pts |
| Q4 0:29 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards | +16% CIN +1.7 pts |
Ravens penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Bengals’ chance of winning
As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 9:53 | The Ravens converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +7% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 2:47 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Bengals fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +23% BAL | CIN: End of half |
| 3 | Q3 6:37 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +10% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 13:45 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +12% BAL | BAL: Opp touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 11:54 | The game turned hereThe Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expectedThe Ravens fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams | +100% CIN | BAL: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 1:25 | The Ravens got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +15% BAL | BAL: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 0:29 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +16% CIN | – |
| 8 | Q4 0:08 | The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 203rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedThe Ravens got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +7% CIN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- La'el Collins (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Alex Cappa (CIN G), out · 0.5 pts
- Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 5.3 pts
- Devin Duvernay (BAL WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ravens 9% · Bengals 91%
- Final margin
- Bengals by 7
- Luck in points
- 3.7 for the Bengals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bengals by 3.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Ravens 62% · Bengals 38% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2022 games · 
Ravens · 
Bengals
More from Wild Card 2022
- Seahawks at 49ers SF 41–23 · replay 84% for the winner
- Chargers at Jaguars JAX 31–30 · replay 67% for the winner
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 34–31 · replay 93% for the winner
- Giants at Vikings NYG 31–24 · replay 49% for the winner
- Cowboys at Buccaneers DAL 31–14 · replay 95% for the winner