luckadjusted

Wild Card 2022 · January 14, 2023

Seahawks at 49ers, Wild Card 2022: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Seahawks 41–23, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:31 left): the Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 14, worth 15 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 23
San Francisco 49ers 41

January 14, 2023 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −10

Luck index +16 49ers about even · −16 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 2, 49ers win 8.

  1. 1 SEA 27 SF 13
  2. 2 SEA 27 SF 24
  3. 3 SEA 18 SF 20
  4. 4 SEA 27 SF 31
  5. 5 SEA 31 SF 38
  6. 6 SEA 6 SF 17
  7. 7 SEA 17 SF 31
  8. 8 SEA 16 SF 34
  9. 9 SEA 16 SF 38
  10. 10 SEA 17 SF 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 16% of them, 49ers 84%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+1.8%
Seahawks by 9–164.1%
Seahawks by 1–89.8%
Level after regulation1.3%
49ers by 1–823.7%
49ers by 9–1623.4%
49ers by 17+36.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was 49ers by 18, without the luck 49ers by 21.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Gould, 34 yds made · 92% expected
  • R. Gould, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • R. Gould, 46 yds made · 76% expected
  • J. Myers, 56 yds made · 60% expected
  • R. Gould, 31 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 5 for 30 yards, 49ers 3 for 28 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 3:43 False Start on the 49ers (Tarvarius Moore), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% SEA +0.5 pts
Q2 0:09 Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers (Jimmie Ward), 15 yards +7% SEA +2.0 pts
Q3 4:06 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SF +1.2 pts
Q3 2:44 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the play +7% SF +1.4 pts
Q4 13:22 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% SF +1.8 pts
Q4 13:01 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.4 pts
Q4 4:50 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Seahawks, 5 yards 0% SF +0.5 pts
Q4 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers, 8 yards 0% SEA +3.3 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:28 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +7% SF SEA: Punt
2 Q2 5:08 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +14% SEA SEA: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:48 The 49ers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% SF SF: Field goal
4 Q2 0:09 Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers (Jimmie Ward), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 3989 snaps before, position avg 1 per 548 +7% SEA SEA: Field goal
5 Q3 10:26 The 49ers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% SF SF: Touchdown
6 Q3 4:06 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedFalse Start on the Seahawks, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% SEA SEA: Turnover
7 Q3 2:44 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% SF SF: Touchdown
8 Q3 2:31 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedThe Seahawks fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% SF SEA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF QB), out, replaced by b.purdy · 3.6 pts
  • Jordyn Brooks (SEA LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Marquise Goodwin (SEA WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 0% · 49ers 100%

Final margin
49ers by 18
Luck in points
3.1 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 21.1
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 16% · 49ers 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2022 games · Seahawks · 49ers

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