luckadjusted

Wild Card 2022 · January 14, 2023

Chargers at Jaguars, Wild Card 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Chargers 31–30 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): R. Patterson made 36-yard field goal, worth 33 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 30
Jacksonville Jaguars 31

January 14, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −2

Luck index +33 Jaguars lucky · −33 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 3, Jaguars win 7.

  1. 1 LAC 23 JAX 6
  2. 2 LAC 24 JAX 17
  3. 3 LAC 26 JAX 24
  4. 4 LAC 17 JAX 20
  5. 5 LAC 22 JAX 27
  6. 6 LAC 22 JAX 30
  7. 7 LAC 6 JAX 17
  8. 8 LAC 17 JAX 31
  9. 9 LAC 10 JAX 27
  10. 10 LAC 19 JAX 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 33% of them, Jaguars 67%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+4.9%
Chargers by 9–169.3%
Chargers by 1–818.4%
Level after regulation2.8%
Jaguars by 1–823.5%
Jaguars by 9–1620.2%
Jaguars by 17+20.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Jaguars by 1, without the luck Jaguars by 2.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Dicker, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Dicker, 50 yds made · 69% expected
  • C. Dicker, 40 yds missed · 86% expected
  • R. Patterson, 36 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 7 for 42 yards, Jaguars 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:44 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Adam Gotsis), 10 yards +2% LAC +1.2 pts
Q2 8:23 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.7 pts
Q3 7:55 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% JAX +1.1 pts
Q3 5:26 Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +1.6 pts
Q3 0:44 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 15 yards +1% LAC +0.5 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.7 pts
Q4 13:46 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars, 15 yards +5% LAC +1.8 pts
Q4 11:58 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards +1% JAX +0.7 pts
Q4 8:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 6 yards +2% JAX +1.2 pts
Q4 5:30 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 1 yard 0% JAX 0.0 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:23 The Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% LAC JAX: Turnover
2 Q1 10:11 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% LAC JAX: Punt
3 Q1 2:09 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedThe Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% LAC JAX: Punt
4 Q4 8:51 C. Dicker missed 40-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +7% JAX LAC: Punt
5 Q4 3:09 The Jaguars got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% JAX JAX: Field goal
6 Q4 1:30 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +9% LAC JAX: Field goal
7 Q4 1:28 The Jaguars converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +29% JAX JAX: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 R. Patterson made 36-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +33% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cam Robinson (JAX T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Dawuane Smoot (JAX DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mike Williams (LAC WR), out · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 31% · Jaguars 69%

Final margin
Jaguars by 1
Luck in points
1.9 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 2.9
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 33% · Jaguars 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2022 games · Chargers · Jaguars

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