luckadjusted

Wild Card 2022 · January 15, 2023

Dolphins at Bills, Wild Card 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Dolphins 34–31, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 14:07 left): Return touchdown by the Dolphins, worth 42 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 31
Buffalo Bills 34

January 15, 2023 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −14

Luck index +7 Bills about even · −7 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Bills win 9.

  1. 1 MIA 41 BUF 33
  2. 2 MIA 24 BUF 27
  3. 3 MIA 24 BUF 30
  4. 4 MIA 13 BUF 24
  5. 5 MIA 16 BUF 31
  6. 6 MIA 16 BUF 33
  7. 7 MIA 18 BUF 38
  8. 8 MIA 20 BUF 45
  9. 9 MIA 20 BUF 49
  10. 10 MIA 7 BUF 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 7% of them, Bills 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.4%
Dolphins by 9–161.7%
Dolphins by 1–84.5%
Level after regulation1.0%
Bills by 1–89.4%
Bills by 9–1617.8%
Bills by 17+65.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.6 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 3, without the luck Dolphins by 9.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Sanders, 40 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Sanders, 48 yds made · 71% expected
  • J. Sanders, 37 yds made · 89% expected
  • T. Bass, 39 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 7 for 34 yards, Bills 2 for 13 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Jerome Baker), 5 yards +1% BUF +0.4 pts
Q1 6:45 Defensive Offside on the Dolphins (Jerome Baker), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q1 3:01 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q1 2:22 False Start on the Bills (Dawson Knox), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.6 pts
Q2 4:03 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.8 pts
Q2 1:28 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +0.5 pts
Q3 0:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 8 yards +2% MIA +1.0 pts
Q4 4:07 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +0.5 pts
Q4 2:29 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 4 yards · pre-snap +5% BUF +0.3 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:51 The Bills converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +17% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q3 14:07 The Bills fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams +42% MIA BUF: Punt
3 Q3 10:26 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedM. Gesicki dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 40 catchable balls before this +12% BUF MIA: Punt
4 Q3 7:34 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 15% expectedThe Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% BUF MIA: Punt
5 Q3 6:09 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q3 4:26 The Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% BUF BUF: Touchdown
7 Q4 10:40 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% MIA BUF: Punt
8 Q4 2:29 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedDelay of Game on the Dolphins, 4 yardsPre-snap flags +16% BUF MIA: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Benford (BUF CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Von Miller (BUF LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Isaiah McKenzie (BUF WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Damar Hamlin (BUF SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA QB), out, replaced by s.thompson · 6.1 pts
  • Liam Eichenberg (MIA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Brandon Shell (MIA T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Raheem Mostert (MIA RB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 71% · Bills 29%

Final margin
Bills by 3
Luck in points
12.6 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 9.6
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 7% · Bills 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2022 games · Dolphins · Bills

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