luckadjusted

2022 season · final

Miami Dolphins, 2022: game by game

The Dolphins went 9–8 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.4 wins. Luck cost them 0.4: the 14th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–5.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.1.

Every game

How often the Dolphins win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Patriots W 20–7 62% +38
Week 2 @ Ravens W 42–38 46% +54
Week 3 vs Bills W 21–19 60% +40
Week 4 @ Bengals L 15–27 32% −32
Week 5 @ Jets L 17–40 9% −9
Week 6 vs Vikings L 16–24 73% −73
Week 7 vs Steelers W 16–10 64% +36
Week 8 @ Lions W 31–27 66% +34
Week 9 @ Bears W 35–32 80% +20
Week 10 vs Browns W 39–17 95% +5
Week 12 vs Texans W 30–15 99% +1
Week 13 @ 49ers L 17–33 21% −21
Week 14 @ Chargers L 17–23 25% −25
Week 15 @ Bills L 29–32 29% −29
Week 16 vs Packers L 20–26 39% −39
Week 17 @ Patriots L 21–23 59% −59
Week 18 vs Jets W 11–6 80% +20
Wild Card @ Bills L 31–34 7% −7

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Dolphins’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Judgment calls+0.56−1.6
3rd & 4th downs−0.17−2.0
Fumble bounces−0.19−4.7
Kicks−0.50−8.1
Drops−0.57−20.3
Injuries−0.79−29.0