luckadjusted

Week 12 2022 · November 27, 2022

Texans at Dolphins, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Texans 30–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:10 left): Return touchdown by the Dolphins, worth 9 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Houston Texans 15
Miami Dolphins 30

November 27, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −14

Luck index +1 Dolphins about even · −1 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 0, Dolphins win 10.

  1. 1 HOU 12 MIA 16
  2. 2 HOU 14 MIA 23
  3. 3 HOU 13 MIA 27
  4. 4 HOU 16 MIA 34
  5. 5 HOU 14 MIA 35
  6. 6 HOU 6 MIA 30
  7. 7 HOU 3 MIA 31
  8. 8 HOU 3 MIA 34
  9. 9 HOU 9 MIA 45
  10. 10 HOU 3 MIA 46

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 1% of them, Dolphins 99%. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+0.0%
Texans by 9–160.1%
Texans by 1–80.5%
Level after regulation0.2%
Dolphins by 1–82.1%
Dolphins by 9–167.6%
Dolphins by 17+89.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Dolphins by 15, without the luck Dolphins by 12.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 45 yds made · 75% expected
  • J. Sanders, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Sanders, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 28 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 5 for 45 yards, Dolphins 4 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:02 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% HOU +1.8 pts
Q1 2:10 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.6 pts
Q2 1:01 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.4 pts
Q2 0:26 Face Mask on the Texans (Ogbonnia Okoronkwo), 12 yards, wiping out the play 0% MIA +1.7 pts
Q3 12:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Steven Nelson), 13 yards, wiping out the play +1% MIA +5.7 pts
Q3 5:01 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (Jevon Holland), 15 yards 0% HOU +1.8 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.7 pts
Q4 12:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Desmond King), 5 yards 0% MIA +0.3 pts
Q4 7:12 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Texans, 10 yards 0% MIA +0.9 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:42 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% MIA HOU: Punt
2 Q1 11:47 J. Wilson dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 17 catchable balls before this +4% HOU MIA: Field goal
3 Q1 11:42 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% MIA MIA: Field goal
4 Q1 8:30 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% MIA HOU: Punt
5 Q1 4:19 The Dolphins converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +5% MIA MIA: Touchdown
6 Q1 2:57 The Texans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +3% HOU HOU: Punt
7 Q1 2:01 D. Pierce dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 27 catchable balls before this +4% MIA HOU: Punt
8 Q2 5:10 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 243rd & 4th downs · 12% expectedThe Texans fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams +9% MIA HOU: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Liam Eichenberg (MIA T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Nik Needham (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Emmanuel Ogbah (MIA DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Brandon Jones (MIA SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Raheem Mostert (MIA RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jonathan Greenard (HOU DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Brevin Jordan (HOU TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 7% · Dolphins 93%

Final margin
Dolphins by 15
Luck in points
2.1 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 12.9
Replay with same day's form
Texans 1% · Dolphins 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Texans · Dolphins

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