luckadjusted

Week 12 2022 · November 28, 2022

Steelers at Colts, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Colts 24–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Colts were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:27 left): the Colts converted 3rd & 6, worth 13 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 24
Indianapolis Colts 17

November 28, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −2.5

Luck index +25 Steelers lucky · −25 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 7, Colts win 3.

  1. 1 PIT 33 IND 10
  2. 2 PIT 26 IND 9
  3. 3 PIT 37 IND 24
  4. 4 PIT 13 IND 3
  5. 5 PIT 13 IND 5
  6. 6 PIT 23 IND 19
  7. 7 PIT 15 IND 13
  8. 8 PIT 15 IND 17
  9. 9 PIT 21 IND 27
  10. 10 PIT 10 IND 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 75% of them, Colts 25%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+21.9%
Steelers by 9–1623.1%
Steelers by 1–827.1%
Level after regulation3.6%
Colts by 1–815.3%
Colts by 9–166.3%
Colts by 17+2.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.5 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 7, without the luck Steelers by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Wright, 45 yds made · 83% expected
  • M. Wright, 52 yds made · 72% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 51 yds made · 71% expected
  • M. Wright, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 59 yds blocked · 59% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 3 for 19 yards, Colts 2 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:20 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +6% IND +1.1 pts
Q2 0:22 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Colts, 5 yards +1% PIT +0.8 pts
Q3 5:24 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Cameron Sutton), 4 yards · pre-snap +8% IND +1.8 pts
Q3 4:39 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 5 yards +6% IND +1.9 pts
Q4 15:00 Roughing the Passer on the Colts (E.J. Speed), 15 yards +7% PIT +1.4 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 5:24 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Cameron Sutton), 4 yardsPre-snap flags · 8 flags in 3078 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +8% IND IND: Turnover
2 Q3 4:35 The Colts fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% PIT IND: Touchdown
3 Q3 1:27 The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +13% IND IND: Touchdown
4 Q4 11:36 The Steelers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:58 The Steelers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +13% PIT PIT: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:00 The Colts converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +8% IND IND: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:35 The Colts fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% IND IND: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:30 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +10% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kwity Paye (IND DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ahkello Witherspoon (PIT CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Chris Boswell (PIT K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Robert Spillane (PIT LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 60% · Colts 40%

Final margin
Steelers by 7
Luck in points
5.5 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 75% · Colts 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Steelers · Colts

More from Week 12 2022