luckadjusted

Week 12 2022 · November 24, 2022

Giants at Cowboys, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Giants 28–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:26 left): the Cowboys converted 3rd & 15, worth 17 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

New York Giants 20
Dallas Cowboys 28

November 24, 2022 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −10.5

Luck index +35 Cowboys lucky · −35 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 4, Cowboys win 6.

  1. 1 NYG 23 DAL 6
  2. 2 NYG 17 DAL 6
  3. 3 NYG 24 DAL 17
  4. 4 NYG 27 DAL 24
  5. 5 NYG 24 DAL 26
  6. 6 NYG 14 DAL 19
  7. 7 NYG 12 DAL 20
  8. 8 NYG 25 DAL 37
  9. 9 NYG 23 DAL 40
  10. 10 NYG 13 DAL 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 35% of them, Cowboys 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+5.0%
Giants by 9–1610.3%
Giants by 1–818.3%
Level after regulation2.4%
Cowboys by 1–826.2%
Cowboys by 9–1622.1%
Cowboys by 17+15.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 8, without the luck Cowboys by 5.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 57 yds made · 69% expected
  • G. Gano, 47 yds made · 85% expected
  • B. Maher, 46 yds missed · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 7 for 66 yards, Cowboys 13 for 86 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:06 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play +11% DAL +3.8 pts
Q1 9:52 Intentional Grounding on the Giants (Daniel Jones), 10 yards +2% DAL +1.2 pts
Q1 9:17 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +3% NYG +0.9 pts
Q1 6:06 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Nahshon Wright), 7 yards +1% NYG +0.6 pts
Q2 13:43 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Carlos Watkins), 5 yards +3% NYG +1.1 pts
Q2 3:52 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +7% NYG +2.0 pts
Q2 3:23 Illegal Contact on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 5 yards +4% DAL +1.1 pts
Q2 3:09 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.8 pts
Q2 1:45 Illegal Use of Hands on the Cowboys, 5 yards +1% NYG +0.6 pts
Q2 1:36 Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Trevon Diggs), 5 yards, wiping out the play +16% NYG +3.3 pts
Q2 0:30 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.5 pts
Q3 12:04 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 5 yards +4% DAL +1.3 pts
Q3 9:03 False Start on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% NYG +0.5 pts
Q3 7:41 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% NYG +0.7 pts
Q3 2:31 False Start on the Cowboys (Noah Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.8 pts
Q4 10:54 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Dalton Schultz), 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% NYG +1.7 pts
Q4 3:59 False Start on the Giants (Richie James), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.3 pts
Q4 3:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Rodarius Williams), 31 yards 0% DAL +2.5 pts
Q4 0:45 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 14 yards 0% NYG +1.3 pts
Q4 0:16 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Dante Fowler), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.3 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:40 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +10% NYG DAL: Turnover
2 Q1 10:06 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% DAL DAL: Turnover
3 Q1 1:02 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +9% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 2:00 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% NYG DAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:36 Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Trevon Diggs), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 14 flags in 2510 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +16% NYG NYG: Field goal
6 Q3 9:39 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% DAL DAL: Touchdown
7 Q3 7:26 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +17% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q3 4:11 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedS. Barkley dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 40 catchable balls before this +16% DAL NYG: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jourdan Lewis (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Barr (DAL LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jake McQuaide (DAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Xavier McKinney (NYG FS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (NYG CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Fabian Moreau (NYG CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Daniel Bellinger (NYG TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (NYG C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jon Feliciano (NYG C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 13% · Cowboys 87%

Final margin
Cowboys by 8
Luck in points
2.2 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 5.8
Replay with same day's form
Giants 35% · Cowboys 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Giants · Cowboys

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