Week 12 2022 · November 27, 2022
Bengals at Titans, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?
The Bengals beat the Titans 20–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 9 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 30 points of win probability to the Titans.
An off day for the Titans: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:58 left): the Bengals converted 3rd & 12, worth 15 points of win probability to the Bengals.
Final
 Cincinnati Bengals | 20 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Bengals about even · −13 Titans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bengals win 9, Titans win 1.
- 1 CIN 39 TEN 10
- 2 CIN 27 TEN 3
- 3 CIN 29 TEN 9
- 4 CIN 20 TEN 3
- 5 CIN 29 TEN 16
- 6 CIN 25 TEN 14
- 7 CIN 26 TEN 17
- 8 CIN 36 TEN 31
- 9 CIN 16 TEN 14
- 10 CIN 10 TEN 17
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Titans
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
34 points apart for the Titans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals offenseEPA per play gained | +0.14 | +0.15 | worse by 0.01 |
| Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.07 | better by 0.01 |
| Titans offenseEPA per play gained | +0.06 | +0.11 | worse by 0.05 |
| Titans defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.07 | worse by 0.06 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bengals win 87% of them, Titans 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bengals by 17+ | 41.8% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 23.8% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 20.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 8.4% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 2.9% |
| Titans by 17+ | 1.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Shudak, 33 yds made · 93% expected
- E. McPherson, 47 yds made · 76% expected
- C. Shudak, 35 yds missed · 91% expected
- E. McPherson, 38 yds made · 88% expected
- C. Shudak, 24 yds made · 98% expected
- C. Shudak, 38 yds made · 87% expected
Penalties: Bengals 9 for 80 yards, Titans 8 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:32 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Chris Evans), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +12% TEN +4.1 pts |
| Q1 11:21 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +1.3 pts |
| Q1 8:36 | False Start on the Titans (Ryan Tannehill), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +1.0 pts |
| Q1 7:33 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 3 yards | +1% TEN +0.3 pts |
| Q1 5:44 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bengals (Trey Hendrickson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.7 pts |
| Q1 5:15 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Markus Bailey), 10 yards | +3% TEN +1.1 pts |
| Q2 11:10 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Tee Higgins), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% TEN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 7:41 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (Tre Flowers), 8 yards | +1% TEN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:55 | Defensive Offside on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:59 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% CIN +1.4 pts |
| Q3 13:47 | Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Titans, 5 yards | +2% CIN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 12:14 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 9 yards | +10% TEN +1.7 pts |
| Q3 3:54 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Amani Hooker), 15 yards | +4% CIN +1.6 pts |
| Q3 3:31 | Intentional Grounding on the Bengals (Joe Burrow), 13 yards | +3% TEN +2.2 pts |
| Q3 2:35 | Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Trey Hendrickson), 12 yards | +8% TEN +1.5 pts |
| Q3 0:06 | Defensive Offside on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CIN +0.5 pts |
| Q4 1:57 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans, 7 yards | +3% CIN +2.3 pts |
Bengals penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Titans’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:32 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Chris Evans), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 402 snaps before, position avg 1 per 821 | +12% TEN | TEN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 0:22 | The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +9% TEN | TEN: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 0:08 | C. Shudak missed 35-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him | +10% CIN | TEN: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 12:14 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 9 yardsJudgment calls | +10% TEN | TEN: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 2:38 | E. McPherson made 38-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +10% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 0:46 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedC. Okonkwo dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 14 catchable balls before this | +12% CIN | TEN: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 13:58 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +15% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 8:48 | The Titans converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +10% TEN | TEN: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Ben Jones (TEN C), out · 0.6 pts
- Denico Autry (TEN DE), out · 0.4 pts
- Randy Bullock (TEN K), out · 0.3 pts
- Terrance Mitchell (TEN CB), out · 0.2 pts
- Ja'Marr Chase (CIN WR), out · 1.7 pts
- Chidobe Awuzie (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Joe Mixon (CIN RB), out · 0.5 pts
- Kevin Huber (CIN P), out · 0.2 pts
- Josh Tupou (CIN NT), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bengals 78% · Titans 22%
- Final margin
- Bengals by 4
- Luck in points
- 4.5 for the Titans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bengals by 8.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Bengals 87% · Titans 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · 
Bengals · 
Titans
More from Week 12 2022
- Bills at Lions BUF 28–25 · replay 78% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 28–20 · replay 65% for the winner
- Patriots at Vikings MIN 33–26 · replay 35% for the winner
- Falcons at Commanders WAS 19–13 · replay 33% for the winner
- Ravens at Jaguars JAX 28–27 · replay 20% for the winner
- Bears at Jets NYJ 31–10 · replay 78% for the winner
- Broncos at Panthers CAR 23–10 · replay 59% for the winner
- Texans at Dolphins MIA 30–15 · replay 99% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Browns CLE 23–17 · replay 60% for the winner
- Chargers at Cardinals LAC 25–24 · replay 48% for the winner
- Raiders at Seahawks LV 40–34 · replay 86% for the winner
- Rams at Chiefs KC 26–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Saints at 49ers SF 13–0 · replay 56% for the winner
- Packers at Eagles PHI 40–33 · replay 59% for the winner
- Steelers at Colts PIT 24–17 · replay 75% for the winner