luckadjusted

Week 12 2022 · November 27, 2022

Chargers at Cardinals, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Cardinals 25–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chargers win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:15 left): the Chargers’ two-point try was good, worth 28 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 25
Arizona Cardinals 24

November 27, 2022 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −2.5

Luck index +52 Chargers lucky · −52 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 5, Cardinals win 5.

  1. 1 LAC 33 ARI 10
  2. 2 LAC 31 ARI 16
  3. 3 LAC 29 ARI 20
  4. 4 LAC 27 ARI 23
  5. 5 LAC 29 ARI 27
  6. 6 LAC 20 ARI 23
  7. 7 LAC 10 ARI 16
  8. 8 LAC 14 ARI 23
  9. 9 LAC 14 ARI 28
  10. 10 LAC 7 ARI 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 48% of them, Cardinals 52%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+8.8%
Chargers by 9–1614.3%
Chargers by 1–822.8%
Level after regulation5.6%
Cardinals by 1–822.2%
Cardinals by 9–1614.9%
Cardinals by 17+11.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.3 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 1, without the luck Cardinals by 6.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • M. Prater, 49 yds missed · 76% expected
  • C. Dicker, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 4 for 30 yards, Cardinals 3 for 19 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:05 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 9 yards, wiping out the play +3% LAC +1.6 pts
Q1 2:08 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.3 pts
Q2 5:09 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chargers (Tre' McKitty), 10 yards +4% ARI +0.9 pts
Q2 2:07 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% ARI +1.1 pts
Q3 12:18 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.8 pts
Q4 2:00 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Cardinals, 5 yards +2% LAC +0.5 pts
Q4 1:07 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +25% ARI +2.3 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:55 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +8% ARI ARI: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:41 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +9% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q2 7:12 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedThe Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% LAC ARI: Touchdown
4 Q3 11:06 M. Prater missed 49-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 29 of 42 from 45+ before +7% LAC ARI: Touchdown
5 Q3 8:20 The Chargers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +12% LAC LAC: Field goal
6 Q4 3:03 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% ARI LAC: Punt
7 Q4 1:07 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +25% ARI ARI: End of game
8 Q4 0:15 The Chargers’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +28% LAC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Byron Murphy (ARI CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Zach Ertz (ARI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • D.J. Humphries (ARI T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Rondale Moore (ARI WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Will Hernandez (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mike Williams (LAC WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • J.C. Jackson (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Nasir Adderley (LAC FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dustin Hopkins (LAC K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Johnson (LAC NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 23% · Cardinals 77%

Final margin
Chargers by 1
Luck in points
7.3 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 6.3
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 48% · Cardinals 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Chargers · Cardinals

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