2022 season · final
Los Angeles Chargers, 2022: game by game
The Chargers went 10–7 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.2 wins. Luck added 1.8: the 2nd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–5.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.3.
Every game
How often the Chargers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Raiders | W 24–19 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 2 | @ Chiefs | L 24–27 | 67% | −67 |
| Week 3 | vs Jaguars | L 10–38 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 4 | @ Texans | W 34–24 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 5 | @ Browns | W 30–28 | 34% | +66 |
| Week 6 | vs Broncos | W 19–16 | 32% | +68 |
| Week 7 | vs Seahawks | L 23–37 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 9 | @ Falcons | W 20–17 | 45% | +55 |
| Week 10 | @ 49ers | L 16–22 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 11 | vs Chiefs | L 27–30 | 12% | −12 |
| Week 12 | @ Cardinals | W 25–24 | 48% | +52 |
| Week 13 | @ Raiders | L 20–27 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 14 | vs Dolphins | W 23–17 | 76% | +25 |
| Week 15 | vs Titans | W 17–14 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 16 | @ Colts | W 20–3 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 17 | vs Rams | W 31–10 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 18 | @ Broncos | L 28–31 | 19% | −19 |
| Wild Card | @ Jaguars | L 30–31 | 33% | −33 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chargers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +1.29 | +13.9 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.28 | +5.2 |
| Drops | +0.19 | +6.5 |
| Judgment calls | +0.17 | +15.4 |
| Injuries | +0.06 | +2.7 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.14 | −6.3 |