luckadjusted

Week 16 2022 · December 26, 2022

Chargers at Colts, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Colts 20–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 9 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Colts.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:39 left): the Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 24 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 20
Indianapolis Colts 3

December 26, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3.5

Luck index +7 Chargers about even · −7 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 9, Colts win 1.

  1. 1 LAC 30 IND 0
  2. 2 LAC 29 IND 6
  3. 3 LAC 27 IND 7
  4. 4 LAC 26 IND 10
  5. 5 LAC 13 IND 0
  6. 6 LAC 23 IND 13
  7. 7 LAC 16 IND 7
  8. 8 LAC 16 IND 10
  9. 9 LAC 12 IND 9
  10. 10 LAC 3 IND 9

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 93% of them, Colts 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+53.4%
Chargers by 9–1622.9%
Chargers by 1–816.3%
Level after regulation1.5%
Colts by 1–84.3%
Colts by 9–161.4%
Colts by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.4 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 17, without the luck Chargers by 13.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 46 yds made · 79% expected
  • C. Dicker, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Dicker, 21 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 6 for 60 yards, Colts 2 for 11 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:16 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +3% IND +0.9 pts
Q2 8:38 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Mo Alie-Cox), 6 yards +3% LAC +1.7 pts
Q2 6:48 False Start on the Colts (Parris Campbell), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +0.8 pts
Q2 6:25 Face Mask on the Chargers (Derwin James), 15 yards +4% IND +1.4 pts
Q2 5:23 Disqualification on the Chargers (Derwin James), 15 yards +2% IND +0.7 pts
Q2 4:21 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.6 pts
Q3 13:41 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% IND +3.5 pts
Q4 12:48 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.6 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:50 The Colts converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +14% IND IND: Turnover
2 Q1 7:34 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedThe Chargers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% IND LAC: Punt
3 Q1 2:01 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% LAC IND: Punt
4 Q2 12:25 The Chargers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +11% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q3 13:41 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% IND IND: Turnover
6 Q3 10:12 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Colts threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% LAC IND: Punt
7 Q3 1:39 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedThe Chargers fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +24% IND LAC: Touchdown
8 Q4 15:00 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +10% LAC IND: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matt Ryan (IND QB), out, replaced by n.foles · 3.5 pts
  • Kenny Moore (IND CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jonathan Taylor (IND RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Johnson (LAC NT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Christian Covington (LAC NT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 100% · Colts 0%

Final margin
Chargers by 17
Luck in points
3.4 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 13.6
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 93% · Colts 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · Chargers · Colts

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