luckadjusted

Week 16 2022 · December 24, 2022

Lions at Panthers, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Lions 37–23, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Panthers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:19 left): I. Thomas dropped a catchable pass, worth 9 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Detroit Lions 23
Carolina Panthers 37

December 24, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Lions −2.5

Luck index +14 Panthers about even · −14 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 1, Panthers win 9.

  1. 1 DET 24 CAR 17
  2. 2 DET 21 CAR 23
  3. 3 DET 10 CAR 15
  4. 4 DET 20 CAR 27
  5. 5 DET 13 CAR 23
  6. 6 DET 14 CAR 26
  7. 7 DET 20 CAR 35
  8. 8 DET 13 CAR 31
  9. 9 DET 7 CAR 30
  10. 10 DET 3 CAR 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 14% of them, Panthers 86%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+1.3%
Lions by 9–163.5%
Lions by 1–88.8%
Level after regulation1.5%
Panthers by 1–819.6%
Panthers by 9–1624.8%
Panthers by 17+40.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Lions: the final margin was Panthers by 14, without the luck Panthers by 15.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 37 yds made · 88% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 40 yds made · 83% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 36 yds made · 89% expected
  • M. Badgley, 34 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 4 for 30 yards, Panthers 10 for 74 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:15 False Start on the Panthers (Ian Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.5 pts
Q1 8:03 False Start on the Panthers (Laviska Shenault Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.6 pts
Q1 2:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Jeremy Chinn), 3 yards +1% DET +1.2 pts
Q2 8:45 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 7 yards +2% DET +0.6 pts
Q2 2:18 Defensive Holding on the Lions, 5 yards +1% CAR +1.5 pts
Q2 0:21 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards 0% DET +1.1 pts
Q2 0:16 Illegal Contact on the Lions, 5 yards +1% CAR +0.3 pts
Q3 1:40 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Isaiah Buggs), 15 yards 0% CAR +1.9 pts
Q4 5:43 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.8 pts
Q4 3:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers, 4 yards 0% DET +0.7 pts
Q4 2:00 False Start on the Panthers (Sam Darnold), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.3 pts
Q4 1:05 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Yetur Gross-Matos), 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% DET +2.3 pts
Q4 0:58 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 15 yards 0% DET +0.8 pts
Q4 0:36 Illegal Formation on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.5 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:50 The Lions got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +4% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:46 The Lions converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:59 The Lions converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% DET DET: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:19 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedI. Thomas dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 23 catchable balls before this +9% DET CAR: Punt
5 Q1 0:54 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +5% DET DET: Turnover
6 Q2 14:20 The Lions fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CAR DET: Punt
7 Q2 11:22 The Panthers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +4% CAR CAR: Touchdown
8 Q2 5:08 The Panthers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +4% CAR CAR: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (DET FS), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 1% · Panthers 99%

Final margin
Panthers by 14
Luck in points
1.9 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 15.9
Replay with same day's form
Lions 14% · Panthers 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · Lions · Panthers

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