luckadjusted

Week 16 2022 · December 24, 2022

Bills at Bears, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Bears 35–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Bills were 72% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:56 left): T. Bass missed 38-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Buffalo Bills 35
Chicago Bears 13

December 24, 2022 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bills −8

Luck index +5 Bills about even · −5 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 9, Bears win 1.

  1. 1 BUF 50 CHI 13
  2. 2 BUF 43 CHI 13
  3. 3 BUF 26 CHI 0
  4. 4 BUF 28 CHI 7
  5. 5 BUF 26 CHI 9
  6. 6 BUF 34 CHI 20
  7. 7 BUF 29 CHI 18
  8. 8 BUF 23 CHI 17
  9. 9 BUF 23 CHI 20
  10. 10 BUF 14 CHI 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 95% of them, Bears 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+66.2%
Bills by 9–1617.9%
Bills by 1–810.1%
Level after regulation0.7%
Bears by 1–83.5%
Bears by 9–161.3%
Bears by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.7 points to the Bears: the final margin was Bills by 22, without the luck Bills by 22.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 37 yds made · 86% expected
  • T. Bass, 38 yds missed · 85% expected
  • C. Santos, 35 yds made · 89% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 9 for 72 yards, Bears 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:08 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +5% BUF +2.0 pts
Q1 9:13 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Bills, 5 yards +1% CHI +0.6 pts
Q1 7:47 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% CHI +1.9 pts
Q2 14:25 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +2% CHI +1.3 pts
Q2 3:56 Defensive Offside on the Bills, 6 yards · pre-snap +4% CHI +1.0 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Siran Neal), 10 yards +2% CHI +0.7 pts
Q3 9:22 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 6 yards +4% CHI +1.2 pts
Q3 7:57 Illegal Shift on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI 0.0 pts
Q3 5:53 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +4% CHI +1.9 pts
Q4 8:06 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.5 pts
Q4 7:33 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bills, 10 yards +3% CHI +0.9 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:10 The Bills threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% CHI BUF: Punt
2 Q2 5:57 The Bears converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +9% CHI CHI: Field goal
3 Q2 3:29 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +6% BUF CHI: Field goal
4 Q2 0:56 T. Bass missed 38-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +10% CHI BUF: Touchdown
5 Q3 8:49 The Bears fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% BUF CHI: Punt
6 Q3 8:03 The Bills converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +8% BUF BUF: Touchdown
7 Q4 13:46 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +7% BUF CHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 13:04 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +6% BUF CHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaylon Johnson (CHI CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Trevor Siemian (CHI QB), out (IR), replaced by j.fields · 0.9 pts
  • Darnell Mooney (CHI WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Eddie Jackson (CHI SS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Teven Jenkins (CHI T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Cody Whitehair (CHI G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jack Sanborn (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kindle Vildor (CHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Equanimeous St. Brown (CHI WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Xavier Rhodes (BUF CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Mitch Morse (BUF C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Christian Benford (BUF CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Von Miller (BUF LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 100% · Bears 0%

Final margin
Bills by 22
Luck in points
0.7 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 22.7
Replay with same day's form
Bills 95% · Bears 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · Bills · Bears

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