luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · December 22, 2022–December 26

Week 16 2022: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Texans beat the Titans 19–14 in a game they win 34% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 16 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Packers 26–20 @ Dolphins 40% 61% Deserved
Saints 17–10 @ Browns 41% 53% Coin flip
Texans 19–14 @ Titans 41% 34% Lucky
Rams 51–14 vs Broncos 41% 92% Deserved
Jaguars 19–3 @ Jets 43% 92% Deserved
Panthers 37–23 vs Lions 43% 86% Deserved

Week 16 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Texans W 19–14 @ Titans 34% +66
2 Vikings W 27–24 vs Giants 35% +65
3 Saints W 17–10 @ Browns 53% +47
4 Packers W 26–20 @ Dolphins 61% +39
5 Bengals W 22–18 @ Patriots 65% +35
6 Cowboys W 40–34 vs Eagles 66% +34
7 Ravens W 17–9 vs Falcons 78% +22
8 Steelers W 13–10 vs Raiders 79% +21
9 Panthers W 37–23 vs Lions 86% +14
10 Buccaneers W 19–16 @ Cardinals 90% +10
11 49ers W 37–20 vs Commanders 91% +9
12 Chiefs W 24–10 vs Seahawks 92% +8
13 Jaguars W 19–3 @ Jets 92% +8
14 Rams W 51–14 vs Broncos 92% +8
15 Chargers W 20–3 @ Colts 93% +7
16 Bills W 35–13 @ Bears 95% +5
17 Bears L 13–35 vs Bills 5% −5
18 Colts L 3–20 vs Chargers 7% −7
19 Broncos L 14–51 @ Rams 8% −8
20 Jets L 3–19 vs Jaguars 8% −8
21 Seahawks L 10–24 @ Chiefs 8% −8
22 Commanders L 20–37 @ 49ers 9% −9
23 Cardinals L 16–19 vs Buccaneers 10% −10
24 Lions L 23–37 @ Panthers 14% −14
25 Raiders L 10–13 @ Steelers 21% −21
26 Falcons L 9–17 @ Ravens 22% −22
27 Eagles L 34–40 @ Cowboys 34% −34
28 Patriots L 18–22 vs Bengals 35% −35
29 Dolphins L 20–26 vs Packers 39% −39
30 Browns L 10–17 vs Saints 47% −47
31 Giants L 24–27 @ Vikings 65% −65
32 Titans L 14–19 vs Texans 66% −66