luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · December 29, 2022–January 1

Week 17 2022: who deserved to win

1 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Patriots beat the Dolphins 23–21 in a game they win 41% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 17 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Saints 20–10 @ Eagles 34% 89% Deserved
Seahawks 23–6 vs Jets 47% 91% Deserved
Browns 24–10 @ Commanders 47% 90% Deserved
Steelers 16–13 @ Ravens 47% 82% Deserved

Week 17 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Patriots W 23–21 vs Dolphins 41% +59
2 49ers W 37–34 @ Raiders 52% +48
3 Falcons W 20–19 vs Cardinals 58% +42
4 Buccaneers W 30–24 vs Panthers 74% +26
5 Packers W 41–17 vs Vikings 81% +19
6 Steelers W 16–13 @ Ravens 82% +19
7 Jaguars W 31–3 @ Texans 83% +17
8 Chargers W 31–10 vs Rams 87% +13
9 Saints W 20–10 @ Eagles 89% +11
10 Giants W 38–10 vs Colts 89% +11
11 Browns W 24–10 @ Commanders 90% +10
12 Seahawks W 23–6 vs Jets 91% +9
13 Cowboys W 27–13 @ Titans 96% +4
14 Chiefs W 27–24 vs Broncos 97% +3
15 Lions W 41–10 vs Bears 99% +1
16 Bears L 10–41 @ Lions 1% −1
17 Broncos L 24–27 @ Chiefs 3% −3
18 Titans L 13–27 vs Cowboys 4% −4
19 Jets L 6–23 @ Seahawks 9% −9
20 Commanders L 10–24 vs Browns 10% −10
21 Colts L 10–38 @ Giants 11% −11
22 Eagles L 10–20 vs Saints 11% −11
23 Rams L 10–31 @ Chargers 13% −13
24 Texans L 3–31 vs Jaguars 17% −17
25 Ravens L 13–16 vs Steelers 19% −19
26 Vikings L 17–41 @ Packers 19% −19
27 Panthers L 24–30 @ Buccaneers 26% −26
28 Cardinals L 19–20 @ Falcons 42% −42
29 Raiders L 34–37 vs 49ers 48% −48
30 Dolphins L 21–23 @ Patriots 59% −59