luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · January 7, 2023–January 8

Week 18 2022: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Panthers beat the Saints 10–7 in a game they win 10% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 18 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Commanders 26–6 vs Cowboys 29% 94% Deserved
Lions 20–16 @ Packers 34% 57% Coin flip
Panthers 10–7 @ Saints 40% 10% Lucky
Texans 32–31 @ Colts 41% 25% Lucky

Week 18 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Panthers W 10–7 @ Saints 10% +90
2 Texans W 32–31 @ Colts 25% +75
3 Lions W 20–16 @ Packers 57% +43
4 Vikings W 29–13 @ Bears 65% +35
5 Steelers W 28–14 vs Browns 66% +34
6 Jaguars W 20–16 vs Titans 73% +27
7 Bengals W 27–16 vs Ravens 78% +22
8 Seahawks W 19–16 vs Rams 78% +22
9 Dolphins W 11–6 vs Jets 80% +20
10 Broncos W 31–28 vs Chargers 81% +19
11 Falcons W 30–17 vs Buccaneers 86% +14
12 Eagles W 22–16 vs Giants 86% +14
13 Bills W 35–23 vs Patriots 89% +11
14 Commanders W 26–6 vs Cowboys 94% +6
15 49ers W 38–13 vs Cardinals 95% +5
16 Chiefs W 31–13 @ Raiders 98% +2
17 Raiders L 13–31 vs Chiefs 2% −2
18 Cardinals L 13–38 @ 49ers 5% −5
19 Cowboys L 6–26 @ Commanders 6% −6
20 Patriots L 23–35 @ Bills 11% −11
21 Giants L 16–22 @ Eagles 14% −14
22 Buccaneers L 17–30 @ Falcons 14% −14
23 Chargers L 28–31 @ Broncos 19% −19
24 Jets L 6–11 @ Dolphins 20% −20
25 Rams L 16–19 @ Seahawks 22% −22
26 Ravens L 16–27 @ Bengals 22% −22
27 Titans L 16–20 @ Jaguars 27% −27
28 Browns L 14–28 @ Steelers 34% −34
29 Bears L 13–29 vs Vikings 35% −35
30 Packers L 16–20 vs Lions 43% −43
31 Colts L 31–32 vs Texans 75% −75
32 Saints L 7–10 vs Panthers 90% −90