luckadjusted

Week 18 2022 · January 8, 2023

Chargers at Broncos, Week 18 2022: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Chargers 31–28, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:51 left): the Broncos converted 3rd & 10, worth 13 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 28
Denver Broncos 31

January 8, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −6

Luck index +19 Broncos about even · −19 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 2, Broncos win 8.

  1. 1 LAC 20 DEN 6
  2. 2 LAC 23 DEN 20
  3. 3 LAC 31 DEN 33
  4. 4 LAC 24 DEN 30
  5. 5 LAC 3 DEN 10
  6. 6 LAC 35 DEN 47
  7. 7 LAC 19 DEN 34
  8. 8 LAC 13 DEN 31
  9. 9 LAC 20 DEN 44
  10. 10 LAC 17 DEN 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 19% of them, Broncos 81%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+2.5%
Chargers by 9–165.1%
Chargers by 1–810.5%
Level after regulation1.5%
Broncos by 1–823.0%
Broncos by 9–1620.7%
Broncos by 17+36.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 3, without the luck Broncos by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Dicker, 48 yds made · 76% expected
  • C. Dicker, 36 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 5 for 34 yards, Broncos 3 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:39 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers, 15 yards +3% DEN +1.8 pts
Q1 5:01 Face Mask on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 4 yards +1% DEN +0.4 pts
Q2 9:26 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Khalil Mack), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.7 pts
Q2 1:08 Roughing the Passer on the Broncos, 15 yards +7% LAC +1.8 pts
Q3 11:04 False Start on the Chargers (Tre' McKitty), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +0.6 pts
Q3 10:08 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos, 15 yards +3% LAC +1.4 pts
Q3 0:21 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 6 yards +1% LAC +0.5 pts
Q4 4:10 False Start on the Chargers (Donald Parham), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +0.4 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:21 The Chargers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% LAC LAC: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:58 The Broncos converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +7% DEN DEN: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:51 The Chargers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +12% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q2 4:53 The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% DEN DEN: Field goal
5 Q2 1:48 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedG. Everett dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 69 catchable balls before this +9% DEN LAC: Punt
6 Q4 12:51 The Broncos converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +13% DEN DEN: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:55 The Broncos fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% DEN DEN: Punt
8 Q4 2:00 The Broncos converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +8% DEN DEN: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dre'Mont Jones (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Calvin Anderson (DEN T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kendall Hinton (DEN WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Damarri Mathis (DEN CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Dalton Risner (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • D.J. Jones (DEN DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Greg Dulcich (DEN TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Bryce Callahan (LAC CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 62% · Broncos 38%

Final margin
Broncos by 3
Luck in points
1.9 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 19% · Broncos 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2022 games · Chargers · Broncos

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