luckadjusted

Week 18 2022 · January 8, 2023

Giants at Eagles, Week 18 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Giants 22–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 89% favorites.

Final

New York Giants 16
Philadelphia Eagles 22

January 8, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −16.5

Luck index +14 Eagles about even · −14 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 1, Eagles win 9.

  1. 1 NYG 26 PHI 17
  2. 2 NYG 19 PHI 21
  3. 3 NYG 19 PHI 23
  4. 4 NYG 7 PHI 15
  5. 5 NYG 13 PHI 24
  6. 6 NYG 31 PHI 44
  7. 7 NYG 3 PHI 20
  8. 8 NYG 7 PHI 27
  9. 9 NYG 10 PHI 33
  10. 10 NYG 16 PHI 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 14% of them, Eagles 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+1.2%
Giants by 9–163.6%
Giants by 1–87.9%
Level after regulation1.6%
Eagles by 1–820.0%
Eagles by 9–1624.1%
Eagles by 17+41.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.8 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 6, without the luck Eagles by 1.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Elliott, 52 yds made · 63% expected
  • J. Elliott, 39 yds made · 87% expected
  • J. Elliott, 54 yds made · 60% expected
  • G. Gano, 24 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Elliott, 22 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 8 for 66 yards, Eagles 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:47 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles, 15 yards +4% NYG +1.8 pts
Q2 12:05 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Landon Collins), 10 yards +2% PHI +0.9 pts
Q2 10:07 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Brandon Graham), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.4 pts
Q2 7:28 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.7 pts
Q2 7:04 Intentional Grounding on the Giants (Davis Webb), 16 yards +2% PHI +1.5 pts
Q2 2:00 Roughing the Passer on the Giants, 15 yards +1% PHI +1.8 pts
Q2 0:19 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.1 pts
Q3 12:19 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% NYG +2.7 pts
Q3 2:20 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.7 pts
Q3 1:53 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.5 pts
Q4 10:57 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.7 pts
Q4 3:06 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Haason Reddick), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.8 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:03 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +3% PHI NYG: Punt
2 Q1 7:50 The Eagles converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:05 The Giants converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +3% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 1:47 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
5 Q1 0:10 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +3% PHI NYG: Turnover on downs
6 Q1 0:06 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +3% PHI NYG: Punt
7 Q2 10:27 J. Elliott made 52-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 16 of 26 from 45+ before +3% PHI PHI: Field goal
8 Q4 10:10 The Giants converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +4% NYG NYG: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Josh Sweat (PHI DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Arryn Siposs (PHI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Dexter Lawrence (NYG DT), out · 0.7 pts
  • Leonard Williams (NYG DT), out · 0.7 pts
  • Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (NYG CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Julian Love (NYG SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jon Feliciano (NYG C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Joshua Ezeudu (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 27% · Eagles 73%

Final margin
Eagles by 6
Luck in points
4.8 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Giants 14% · Eagles 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2022 games · Giants · Eagles

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