luckadjusted

Week 18 2022 · January 8, 2023

Texans at Colts, Week 18 2022: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Colts 32–31, but the Colts played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 33 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Colts were 59% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:50 left): P. Campbell dropped a catchable pass, worth 60 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 32
Indianapolis Colts 31

January 8, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −3

Luck index +75 Texans very lucky · −75 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 2, Colts win 8.

  1. 1 HOU 20 IND 6
  2. 2 HOU 20 IND 17
  3. 3 HOU 27 IND 29
  4. 4 HOU 10 IND 13
  5. 5 HOU 20 IND 28
  6. 6 HOU 13 IND 24
  7. 7 HOU 19 IND 33
  8. 8 HOU 17 IND 34
  9. 9 HOU 3 IND 24
  10. 10 HOU 13 IND 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 25% of them, Colts 75%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+2.9%
Texans by 9–166.5%
Texans by 1–813.2%
Level after regulation2.4%
Colts by 1–825.5%
Colts by 9–1620.9%
Colts by 17+28.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 points to the Colts: the final margin was Texans by 1, without the luck Texans by 3.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 54 yds made · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 7 for 41 yards, Colts 2 for 10 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:40 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Maliek Collins), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.5 pts
Q1 4:53 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans, 3 yards +2% IND +0.7 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.4 pts
Q3 13:37 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.6 pts
Q3 11:55 Encroachment on the Texans, 3 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.1 pts
Q3 8:51 Face Mask on the Texans (Jonathan Greenard), 15 yards +4% IND +1.6 pts
Q3 7:45 Defensive Holding on the Texans, 5 yards +2% IND +0.9 pts
Q4 13:47 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Jerry Hughes), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.3 pts
Q4 1:51 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% IND +0.4 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 93%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:41 The Colts threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +30% HOU IND: Turnover
2 Q2 4:56 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Colts threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% HOU IND: End of half
3 Q3 1:00 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the ColtsSpecial teams +40% IND HOU: Turnover
4 Q4 14:28 The Colts fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:26 The Texans converted 4th & 123rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +19% HOU HOU: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:58 The Texans converted 4th & 203rd & 4th downs · 13% expected +21% HOU HOU: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:50 The game turned hereThe Texans’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedP. Campbell dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 72 catchable balls before this +60% HOU HOU: End of game
8 Q4 0:41 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +12% IND IND: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stephon Gilmore (IND CB), out · 1.3 pts
  • Yannick Ngakoue (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Kenny Moore (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jonathan Taylor (IND RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Isaiah Rodgers (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Steven Nelson (HOU CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Phillip Dorsett (HOU WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Dameon Pierce (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 81% · Colts 19%

Final margin
Texans by 1
Luck in points
2.8 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Texans 25% · Colts 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2022 games · Texans · Colts

More from Week 18 2022