luckadjusted

Week 18 2022 · January 8, 2023

Ravens at Bengals, Week 18 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Ravens 27–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:36 left): Return touchdown by the Bengals, worth 14 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 16
Cincinnati Bengals 27

January 8, 2023 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −11

Luck index +22 Bengals about even · −22 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 2, Bengals win 8.

  1. 1 BAL 37 CIN 24
  2. 2 BAL 22 CIN 19
  3. 3 BAL 23 CIN 25
  4. 4 BAL 20 CIN 24
  5. 5 BAL 6 CIN 13
  6. 6 BAL 13 CIN 23
  7. 7 BAL 17 CIN 30
  8. 8 BAL 20 CIN 36
  9. 9 BAL 10 CIN 30
  10. 10 BAL 7 CIN 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 22% of them, Bengals 78%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+2.4%
Ravens by 9–166.7%
Ravens by 1–811.9%
Level after regulation2.5%
Bengals by 1–824.8%
Bengals by 9–1620.3%
Bengals by 17+31.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.0 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 11, without the luck Bengals by 7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Tucker, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • E. McPherson, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Tucker, 51 yds made · 70% expected
  • J. Tucker, 27 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 5 for 22 yards, Bengals 3 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 11:20 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% CIN +1.5 pts
Q2 5:42 Illegal Shift on the Ravens (Josh Oliver), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +1.0 pts
Q2 5:12 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Trey Hendrickson), 15 yards +2% BAL +2.4 pts
Q3 14:21 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +1% BAL +0.9 pts
Q3 12:56 Illegal Touch Pass on the Ravens (James Proche), 0 yards 0% CIN 0.0 pts
Q3 7:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Patrick Queen), 2 yards 0% CIN +0.7 pts
Q4 9:33 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Ravens (Justice Hill), 5 yards 0% CIN +0.3 pts
Q4 5:55 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% BAL +2.3 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:35 The Ravens got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% BAL BAL: Punt
2 Q1 7:39 The Bengals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +4% CIN CIN: Field goal
3 Q1 5:01 The Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% CIN BAL: Turnover
4 Q1 4:41 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 15:00 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% CIN BAL: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 0:36 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Ravens fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams +14% CIN BAL: End of half
7 Q3 1:09 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedT. Higgins dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 84 catchable balls before this +4% BAL CIN: Punt
8 Q4 6:06 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedD. Robinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 51 catchable balls before this +3% CIN BAL: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • La'el Collins (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by a.brown · 5.3 pts
  • Marcus Peters (BAL CB), out · 1.5 pts
  • Mark Andrews (BAL TE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Kevin Zeitler (BAL G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Devin Duvernay (BAL WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 1% · Bengals 99%

Final margin
Bengals by 11
Luck in points
4.0 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 7.0
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 22% · Bengals 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2022 games · Ravens · Bengals

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