luckadjusted

2022 season · final

Denver Broncos, 2022: game by game

The Broncos went 5–12 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.6 wins. Luck cost them 2.6: the 2nd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–9.

Every game

How often the Broncos win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Seahawks L 16–17 64% −64
Week 2 vs Texans W 16–9 97% +3
Week 3 vs 49ers W 11–10 45% +55
Week 4 @ Raiders L 23–32 10% −10
Week 5 vs Colts L 9–12 97% −97
Week 6 @ Chargers L 16–19 68% −68
Week 7 vs Jets L 9–16 25% −25
Week 8 @ Jaguars W 21–17 37% +63
Week 10 @ Titans L 10–17 13% −13
Week 11 vs Raiders L 16–22 45% −45
Week 12 @ Panthers L 10–23 41% −41
Week 13 @ Ravens L 9–10 40% −40
Week 14 vs Chiefs L 28–34 1% −1
Week 15 vs Cardinals W 24–15 87% +13
Week 16 @ Rams L 14–51 8% −8
Week 17 @ Chiefs L 24–27 3% −3
Week 18 vs Chargers W 31–28 81% +19

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Broncos’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Judgment calls+0.53+14.3
Drops+0.19+8.3
Rest+0.06+1.8
3rd & 4th downs−0.03−2.2
Fumble bounces−0.21+1.6
Injuries−0.45−18.3
Kicks−1.61−24.6