luckadjusted

2023 season · final

Denver Broncos, 2023: game by game

The Broncos went 8–9 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.2 wins. Luck cost them 0.2: the 16th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–4.

Every game

How often the Broncos win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Raiders L 16–17 59% −59
Week 2 vs Commanders L 33–35 54% −54
Week 3 @ Dolphins L 20–70 2% −2
Week 4 @ Bears W 31–28 34% +66
Week 5 vs Jets L 21–31 63% −63
Week 6 @ Chiefs L 8–19 13% −13
Week 7 vs Packers W 19–17 63% +37
Week 8 vs Chiefs W 24–9 39% +61
Week 10 @ Bills W 24–22 33% +67
Week 11 vs Vikings W 21–20 83% +17
Week 12 vs Browns W 29–12 79% +21
Week 13 @ Texans L 17–22 61% −61
Week 14 @ Chargers W 24–7 86% +14
Week 15 @ Lions L 17–42 12% −12
Week 16 vs Patriots L 23–26 50% −50
Week 17 vs Chargers W 16–9 69% +31
Week 18 @ Raiders L 14–27 18% −18

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Broncos’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Injuries+0.92+33.3
Judgment calls+0.88+11.2
3rd & 4th downs+0.40+10.1
Kicks+0.17−3.1
Drops−0.08+3.5
Fumble bounces−0.48−14.2