luckadjusted

Week 18 2023 · January 7, 2024

Broncos at Raiders, Week 18 2023: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Broncos 27–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:23 left): the Broncos converted 3rd & 15, worth 8 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Denver Broncos 14
Las Vegas Raiders 27

January 7, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −3.5

Luck index +18 Raiders about even · −18 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 2, Raiders win 8.

  1. 1 DEN 23 LV 12
  2. 2 DEN 17 LV 14
  3. 3 DEN 30 LV 32
  4. 4 DEN 20 LV 24
  5. 5 DEN 7 LV 15
  6. 6 DEN 20 LV 31
  7. 7 DEN 16 LV 30
  8. 8 DEN 7 LV 24
  9. 9 DEN 10 LV 30
  10. 10 DEN 0 LV 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 18% of them, Raiders 82%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+1.4%
Broncos by 9–164.9%
Broncos by 1–811.0%
Level after regulation2.5%
Raiders by 1–827.6%
Raiders by 9–1621.9%
Raiders by 17+30.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.2 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Raiders by 13, without the luck Raiders by 8.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 49 yds made · 80% expected
  • D. Carlson, 21 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 4 for 35 yards, Raiders 0 for 0 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:01 Encroachment on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.5 pts
Q2 6:29 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +2% LV +1.6 pts
Q2 2:22 Offensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Courtland Sutton), 10 yards +4% LV +0.4 pts
Q3 8:36 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos (Riley Moss), 10 yards +3% LV +0.9 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:09 The Raiders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% LV LV: Punt
2 Q1 5:06 The Raiders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +5% LV LV: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:53 The Raiders converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +5% LV LV: Touchdown
4 Q2 5:23 The Broncos converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +8% DEN DEN: Punt
5 Q2 4:45 J. Williams dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 65 catchable balls before this +5% LV DEN: Punt
6 Q2 1:08 The Raiders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% LV LV: Touchdown
7 Q3 3:34 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +6% LV DEN: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 0:40 The Raiders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% LV LV: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Josh Jacobs (LV RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Thayer Munford (LV T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Michael Mayer (LV TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Mike McGlinchey (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 4% · Raiders 96%

Final margin
Raiders by 13
Luck in points
4.2 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 8.8
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 18% · Raiders 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2023 games · Broncos · Raiders

More from Week 18 2023