luckadjusted

Week 18 2023 · January 7, 2024

Falcons at Saints, Week 18 2023: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Falcons 48–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Saints were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:02 left): the Falcons converted 3rd & 5, worth 16 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 17
New Orleans Saints 48

January 7, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −3.5

Luck index +40 Saints lucky · −40 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 4, Saints win 6.

  1. 1 ATL 31 NO 13
  2. 2 ATL 28 NO 17
  3. 3 ATL 23 NO 17
  4. 4 ATL 29 NO 27
  5. 5 ATL 27 NO 30
  6. 6 ATL 16 NO 21
  7. 7 ATL 13 NO 22
  8. 8 ATL 10 NO 23
  9. 9 ATL 10 NO 29
  10. 10 ATL 7 NO 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 40% of them, Saints 60%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+8.1%
Falcons by 9–1612.5%
Falcons by 1–818.6%
Level after regulation2.7%
Saints by 1–825.6%
Saints by 9–1615.4%
Saints by 17+17.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.5 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 31, without the luck Saints by 17.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • Y. Koo, 30 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Grupe, 24 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 8 for 75 yards, Saints 3 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:42 Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (MyCole Pruitt), 15 yards +2% NO +1.7 pts
Q1 8:42 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.8 pts
Q1 8:09 Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (Clark Phillips), 15 yards +3% NO +1.6 pts
Q2 10:25 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (MyCole Pruitt), 10 yards +4% NO +2.2 pts
Q2 2:01 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons, 6 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.9 pts
Q2 1:55 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons (Calais Campbell), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.7 pts
Q4 9:31 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +1% NO +0.9 pts
Q4 9:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Clark Phillips), 9 yards 0% NO +1.1 pts
Q4 9:05 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.8 pts
Q4 6:39 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.2 pts
Q4 5:55 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.4 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:02 The Falcons converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +16% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q2 13:37 The Saints converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +10% NO NO: Touchdown
3 Q2 5:21 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% ATL NO: Punt
4 Q2 1:03 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% ATL NO: Field goal
5 Q2 0:37 The Falcons converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +7% ATL ATL: Field goal
6 Q2 0:03 Y. Koo made 30-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +5% NO ATL: Turnover
7 Q3 13:45 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% NO ATL: Punt
8 Q3 1:17 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +5% NO ATL: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Taylor Heinicke (ATL QB), out, replaced by d.ridder · 1.3 pts
  • Drew Dalman (ATL C), out · 0.6 pts
  • DeMarcco Hellams (ATL SS), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kentavius Street (ATL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 0% · Saints 100%

Final margin
Saints by 31
Luck in points
13.5 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 17.5
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 40% · Saints 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2023 games · Falcons · Saints

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