2023 season · final

Atlanta Falcons, 2023: game by game

The Falcons went 7–10 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.4 wins. Luck cost them 2.4: the 4th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–6.

Every game

How often the Falcons win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Panthers	W 24–10	68%	+32
Week 2	vs Packers	W 25–24	38%	+62
Week 3	@ Lions	L 6–20	2%	−2
Week 4	@ Jaguars	L 7–23	20%	−20
Week 5	vs Texans	W 21–19	41%	+59
Week 6	vs Commanders	L 16–24	73%	−73
Week 7	@ Buccaneers	W 16–13	88%	+12
Week 8	@ Titans	L 23–28	52%	−52
Week 9	vs Vikings	L 28–31	56%	−56
Week 10	@ Cardinals	L 23–25	54%	−54
Week 12	vs Saints	W 24–15	80%	+20
Week 13	@ Jets	W 13–8	94%	+6
Week 14	vs Buccaneers	L 25–29	85%	−85
Week 15	@ Panthers	L 7–9	44%	−44
Week 16	vs Colts	W 29–10	92%	+8
Week 17	@ Bears	L 17–37	10%	−10
Week 18	@ Saints	L 17–48	40%	−40

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +32 vs CAR

Wk 2 +62 vs GB

Wk 3 −2 @ DET

Wk 4 −20 @ JAX

Wk 5 +59 vs HOU

Wk 6 −73 vs WAS

Wk 7 +12 @ TB

Wk 8 −52 @ TEN

Wk 9 −56 vs MIN

Wk 10 −54 @ ARI

Wk 12 +20 vs NO

Wk 13 +6 @ NYJ

Wk 14 −85 vs TB

Wk 15 −44 @ CAR

Wk 16 +8 vs IND

Wk 17 −10 @ CHI

Wk 18 −40 @ NO

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Falcons’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+0.77	+21.0
Injuries	+0.56	+19.5
Rest	−0.07	−2.6
Fumble bounces	−0.11	−12.6
3rd & 4th downs	−0.20	+3.8
Drops	−0.31	−6.0
Kicks	−0.34	−19.6