luckadjusted

Referee calls · 2019–2026

Do refs favor the Falcons?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.40 wins a season to the Falcons since 2019, 5th of 32 teams. The Falcons haven’t played a playoff game since 2019.

Call luck, season by season

Wins from judgment calls each regular season: the calls that helped the Falcons minus the calls that hurt them, each weighted by the moment it came.

SeasonGamesCalls, winsLeague rankFlags againstFlags forPlayoffs, wins
20263−0.29 28th1712 –
202517−0.01 19th5660 –
202417+0.15 12th5968 –
202317+0.77 5th5462 –
202217+0.90 3rd4662 –
202117+0.47 11th4970 –
202016+0.45 13th5264 –
201916+0.41 10th7977 –

Biggest calls for the Falcons

  1. Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 3 · 35 pts of win probability
  2. Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 17 · 30 pts of win probability
  3. Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 9 · 26 pts of win probability
  4. Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 30 yards · 2024 Week 4 · 24 pts of win probability
  5. Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (Cody Barton), 15 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 6 · 22 pts of win probability

Biggest calls against

  1. Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Michael Penix), 15 yards · 2025 Week 10 · 33 pts of win probability
  2. Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 13 · 24 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards · 2024 Week 18 · 23 pts of win probability
  4. Tripping on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 9 · 21 pts of win probability
  5. Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons, 40 yards · 2022 Week 17 · 18 pts of win probability

Questions

Do refs favor the Falcons?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.40 wins a season to the Falcons since 2019, 5th of 32 teams.

What about the playoffs?

The Falcons haven’t played a playoff game since 2019.

How is this measured?

Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued by what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out. The same holding call is worth nothing when the game is decided and most of a win at the turn of a close one. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.

Is it more than chance?

Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.

All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Atlanta Falcons, every season