2023 NFL season · final · regular season

Referee calls, 2023: who they helped

Judgment calls helped the Cowboys most in 2023: +1.16 wins, the calls that went their way minus the ones that didn’t, each weighted by the moment it came. They hurt the Giants most: −1.64 wins. The Jets were flagged the most, 124 times.

Judgment calls are the flags an official has to judge: holding, pass interference, roughing and the like. Each is valued by what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out, so a call in a decided game counts for nothing and one at the turn of a close game for most of a win. Week to week a team’s call luck barely repeats (correlation 0.06), which is what chance looks like. How calls are valued

#	Team	Call luck, wins	Judgment flags against	For	Pre-snap flags against
1	Cowboys	+1.16	70	66	45
2	Vikings	+0.91	47	68	42
3	Raiders	+0.90	43	66	32
4	Broncos	+0.88	59	66	40
5	Falcons	+0.77	54	62	30
6	Rams	+0.67	63	66	26
7	Bengals	+0.65	44	60	32
8	Steelers	+0.42	58	55	28
9	Jaguars	+0.42	37	65	46
10	Panthers	+0.29	57	61	46
11	Packers	+0.25	61	58	43
12	Commanders	+0.20	54	64	33
13	49ers	+0.19	63	59	38
14	Browns	+0.14	57	62	58
15	Buccaneers	+0.06	59	58	41
16	Cardinals	+0.04	67	60	34
17	Titans	−0.01	66	62	44
18	Lions	−0.12	66	52	31
19	Dolphins	−0.13	58	48	39
20	Saints	−0.16	62	59	34
21	Chargers	−0.19	53	59	26
22	Eagles	−0.24	49	62	45
23	Seahawks	−0.26	66	56	44
24	Jets	−0.30	70	57	54
25	Texans	−0.35	70	60	44
26	Chiefs	−0.48	63	45	33
27	Colts	−0.50	50	54	45
28	Ravens	−0.63	68	61	34
29	Patriots	−0.83	53	46	36
30	Bills	−0.96	70	55	36
31	Bears	−1.15	58	37	41
32	Giants	−1.64	57	63	32

Call luck by team

DAL +1.16 1st

MIN +0.91 2nd

LV +0.90 3rd

DEN +0.88 4th

ATL +0.77 5th

LA +0.67 6th

CIN +0.65 7th

PIT +0.42 8th

JAX +0.42 9th

CAR +0.29 10th

GB +0.25 11th

WAS +0.20 12th

SF +0.19 13th

CLE +0.14 14th

TB +0.06 15th

ARI +0.04 16th

TEN −0.01 17th

DET −0.12 18th

MIA −0.13 19th

NO −0.16 20th

LAC −0.19 21st

PHI −0.24 22nd

SEA −0.26 23rd

NYJ −0.30 24th

HOU −0.35 25th

KC −0.48 26th

IND −0.50 27th

BAL −0.63 28th

NE −0.83 29th

BUF −0.96 30th

CHI −1.15 31st

NYG −1.64 32nd

Referee crews

Flags per game in each crew’s games, and how the judgment calls leaned: share of a win a game toward the home team.

Referee	Games	Judgment flags per game	Pre-snap per game	Toward home team
Ron Torbert	17	7.4	5.4	−1.9%
Alex Kemp	17	7.4	5.3	+3.0%
Tra Blake	16	8.1	4.5	−8.0%
Brad Rogers	17	8.4	4.1	+3.3%
John Hussey	17	7.6	4.7	+1.8%
Land Clark	16	7.5	4.8	+3.4%
Shawn Smith	17	7.8	4.3	−7.9%
Bill Vinovich	18	6.7	4.9	−5.2%
Adrian Hill	17	6.4	4.9	+6.2%
Brad Allen	15	6.0	4.8	+4.8%
Clay Martin	17	6.6	4.2	−3.2%
Shawn Hochuli	17	6.9	3.9	−1.3%
Clete Blakeman	17	6.2	4.4	+2.7%
Carl Cheffers	17	6.3	3.8	−1.0%
Alan Eck	17	5.7	4.2	+5.7%
Craig Wrolstad	17	6.0	3.9	−0.2%
Scott Novak	16	5.4	4.3	−5.3%

All referees since 2019 · 2023 luck rankings · Expected wins