luckadjusted

Week 17 2022 · January 1, 2023

Cardinals at Falcons, Week 17 2022: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Cardinals 20–19, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Falcons win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:00 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons, 40 yards, worth 18 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 19
Atlanta Falcons 20

January 1, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −7

Luck index +42 Falcons lucky · −42 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 4, Falcons win 6.

  1. 1 ARI 41 ATL 23
  2. 2 ARI 29 ATL 17
  3. 3 ARI 16 ATL 10
  4. 4 ARI 19 ATL 17
  5. 5 ARI 14 ATL 16
  6. 6 ARI 10 ATL 16
  7. 7 ARI 26 ATL 34
  8. 8 ARI 10 ATL 23
  9. 9 ARI 12 ATL 28
  10. 10 ARI 17 ATL 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 42% of them, Falcons 58%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+5.7%
Cardinals by 9–1612.7%
Cardinals by 1–820.8%
Level after regulation3.1%
Falcons by 1–828.6%
Falcons by 9–1616.4%
Falcons by 17+12.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.2 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 1, without the luck Cardinals by 6.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • M. Prater, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • M. Prater, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • M. Prater, 43 yds missed · 85% expected
  • Y. Koo, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Prater, 57 yds made · 63% expected
  • Y. Koo, 21 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 8 for 50 yards, Falcons 5 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:09 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% ATL +2.2 pts
Q1 7:05 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (J.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% ATL +1.1 pts
Q1 6:47 Encroachment on the Cardinals (Leki Fotu), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.4 pts
Q1 3:12 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +3% ARI +0.9 pts
Q2 7:31 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +2% ARI +0.9 pts
Q2 0:57 Defensive Offside on the Falcons, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +15% ARI +4.0 pts
Q2 0:50 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.5 pts
Q3 10:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons, 40 yards +18% ARI +4.2 pts
Q3 7:03 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Falcons, 5 yards +1% ARI +0.5 pts
Q4 12:50 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Markus Golden), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ATL +0.5 pts
Q4 7:09 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards +2% ATL +0.7 pts
Q4 7:05 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% ATL +1.1 pts
Q4 3:53 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (J.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ATL +0.5 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 2:58 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +11% ARI ATL: Touchdown
2 Q2 2:00 Blocked punt by the FalconsSpecial teams +11% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:57 Defensive Offside on the Falcons, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +15% ARI ARI: Field goal
4 Q3 10:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons, 40 yardsJudgment calls +18% ARI ARI: Field goal
5 Q3 4:06 M. Prater missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +11% ATL ARI: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 13:34 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +17% ATL ARI: Field goal
7 Q4 5:02 M. Prater made 57-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 34 of 49 from 45+ before +14% ARI –
8 Q4 2:00 The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +12% ATL ATL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Mariota (ATL QB), out (IR), replaced by d.ridder · 2.6 pts
  • Kyle Pitts (ATL TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (ATL T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ta'Quon Graham (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Rashad Fenton (ATL CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out (IR), replaced by d.blough · 4.7 pts
  • DeAndre Hopkins (ARI WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Byron Murphy (ARI CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Zach Ertz (ARI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Zach Allen (ARI DE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Budda Baker (ARI SS), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Rondale Moore (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Antonio Hamilton (ARI CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Rashaad Coward (ARI T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Marco Wilson (ARI CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Aaron Brewer (ARI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 43% · Falcons 57%

Final margin
Falcons by 1
Luck in points
7.2 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 6.2
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 42% · Falcons 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2022 games · Cardinals · Falcons

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