luckadjusted

Week 17 2022 · December 29, 2022

Cowboys at Titans, Week 17 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Titans 27–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 9:02 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans, 51 yards, worth 18 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 27
Tennessee Titans 13

December 29, 2022 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −14

Luck index +4 Cowboys about even · −4 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 10, Titans win 0.

  1. 1 DAL 44 TEN 7
  2. 2 DAL 33 TEN 3
  3. 3 DAL 33 TEN 9
  4. 4 DAL 30 TEN 10
  5. 5 DAL 20 TEN 3
  6. 6 DAL 24 TEN 10
  7. 7 DAL 27 TEN 16
  8. 8 DAL 33 TEN 24
  9. 9 DAL 34 TEN 28
  10. 10 DAL 12 TEN 9

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 96% of them, Titans 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+64.7%
Cowboys by 9–1617.7%
Cowboys by 1–813.1%
Level after regulation0.5%
Titans by 1–82.9%
Titans by 9–160.9%
Titans by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +19.7 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 14, without the luck Titans by 5.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • R. Bullock, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • R. Bullock, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. Maher, 45 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 3 for 35 yards, Titans 10 for 124 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:19 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards 0% DAL +0.9 pts
Q1 10:13 Illegal Motion on the Titans (Davontae Harris), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.4 pts
Q1 9:36 Defensive Offside on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.2 pts
Q1 6:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans, 14 yards +4% DAL +1.2 pts
Q2 0:55 Defensive Holding on the Titans, 5 yards +4% DAL +0.5 pts
Q3 13:34 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cowboys (Kelvin Joseph), 10 yards +3% TEN +0.7 pts
Q3 11:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans, 9 yards +4% DAL +1.1 pts
Q3 9:43 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +4% TEN +1.0 pts
Q3 9:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans, 51 yards +18% DAL +5.3 pts
Q4 15:00 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Monty Rice), 15 yards +7% DAL +1.9 pts
Q4 9:58 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.4 pts
Q4 5:06 Fair Catch Interference on the Cowboys (Kelvin Joseph), 15 yards +1% TEN +1.1 pts
Q4 3:54 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.3 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:02 The Titans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% TEN TEN: Turnover
2 Q2 10:00 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Titans fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% DAL TEN: Punt
3 Q2 3:38 The Cowboys were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% TEN DAL: Turnover
4 Q3 13:38 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedT. Burks dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 31 catchable balls before this +10% DAL TEN: Punt
5 Q3 9:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans, 51 yardsJudgment calls +18% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q3 5:17 The Titans converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +9% TEN TEN: Touchdown
7 Q3 2:10 The Titans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% TEN TEN: Touchdown
8 Q3 1:25 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +11% DAL DAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Tannehill (TEN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.dobbs · 6.9 pts
  • Jeffery Simmons (TEN DT), out · 0.8 pts
  • Nicholas Petit-Frere (TEN T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Ben Jones (TEN C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Derrick Henry (TEN RB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Denico Autry (TEN DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nate Davis (TEN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • David Long (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Bud Dupree (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Terence Steele (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Anthony Brown (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tony Pollard (DAL RB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 70% · Titans 30%

Final margin
Cowboys by 14
Luck in points
19.7 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 5.7
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 96% · Titans 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2022 games · Cowboys · Titans

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