luckadjusted

Week 17 2022 · January 1, 2023

Browns at Commanders, Week 17 2022: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Commanders 24–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 9 of 10. The Commanders had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Commanders.

An off day for the Commanders: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Browns they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:12 left): the Browns converted 3rd & 5, worth 21 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 24
Washington Commanders 10

January 1, 2023 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −1

Luck index +10 Browns about even · −10 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 9, Commanders win 1.

  1. 1 CLE 41 WAS 14
  2. 2 CLE 24 WAS 3
  3. 3 CLE 37 WAS 20
  4. 4 CLE 23 WAS 9
  5. 5 CLE 17 WAS 6
  6. 6 CLE 23 WAS 15
  7. 7 CLE 26 WAS 20
  8. 8 CLE 17 WAS 13
  9. 9 CLE 17 WAS 16
  10. 10 CLE 17 WAS 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Commanders

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Browns they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.

36 points apart for the Commanders: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Browns offenseEPA per play gained +0.24 +0.09 better by 0.14
Browns defenseEPA per play allowed −0.05 +0.08 better by 0.13
Commanders offenseEPA per play gained −0.05 +0.06 worse by 0.11
Commanders defenseEPA per play allowed +0.24 +0.09 worse by 0.15

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 90% of them, Commanders 10%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+41.4%
Browns by 9–1627.9%
Browns by 1–820.0%
Level after regulation1.2%
Commanders by 1–87.0%
Commanders by 9–161.9%
Commanders by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Browns by 14, without the luck Browns by 14.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. York, 37 yds made · 89% expected
  • J. Slye, 43 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 3 for 20 yards, Commanders 5 for 24 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:41 Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Montez Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.2 pts
Q1 13:22 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +4% WAS +1.0 pts
Q1 0:26 Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Khaleke Hudson), 4 yards · pre-snap +4% CLE +0.1 pts
Q2 14:16 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 5 yards +5% WAS +1.3 pts
Q3 2:35 Illegal Shift on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% WAS +1.4 pts
Q4 8:25 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.7 pts
Q4 2:40 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.4 pts
Q4 2:08 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.2 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:54 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +16% CLE WAS: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 3:56 The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +10% CLE WAS: Turnover
3 Q1 0:23 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +11% WAS CLE: Punt
4 Q2 6:09 The Commanders converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 15% expected +9% WAS WAS: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:23 The Commanders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +13% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q3 10:12 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +21% CLE CLE: Touchdown
7 Q3 3:55 The Browns converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% CLE CLE: Touchdown
8 Q3 0:43 The Browns converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% CLE CLE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kamren Curl (WAS SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Benjamin St-Juste (WAS CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tyler Larsen (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • James Smith-Williams (WAS DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sione Takitaki (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 100% · Commanders 0%

Final margin
Browns by 14
Luck in points
0.8 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 14.8
Replay with same day's form
Browns 90% · Commanders 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2022 games · Browns · Commanders

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