luckadjusted

Week 17 2022 · January 1, 2023

Vikings at Packers, Week 17 2022: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Vikings 41–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:33 left): Return touchdown by the Packers, worth 35 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 17
Green Bay Packers 41

January 1, 2023 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −3

Luck index +19 Packers about even · −19 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 2, Packers win 8.

  1. 1 MIN 27 GB 13
  2. 2 MIN 20 GB 17
  3. 3 MIN 20 GB 23
  4. 4 MIN 19 GB 24
  5. 5 MIN 9 GB 16
  6. 6 MIN 6 GB 16
  7. 7 MIN 27 GB 41
  8. 8 MIN 6 GB 22
  9. 9 MIN 17 GB 37
  10. 10 MIN 14 GB 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 19% of them, Packers 81%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+2.1%
Vikings by 9–166.0%
Vikings by 1–810.8%
Level after regulation2.8%
Packers by 1–824.0%
Packers by 9–1621.9%
Packers by 17+32.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 24, without the luck Packers by 17.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • G. Joseph, 46 yds missed · 73% expected
  • M. Crosby, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • G. Joseph, 50 yds missed · 64% expected
  • M. Crosby, 56 yds made · 57% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 6 for 35 yards, Packers 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:24 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +0.8 pts
Q2 9:52 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN 0.0 pts
Q2 8:31 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.5 pts
Q2 8:08 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards 0% GB +0.7 pts
Q2 6:27 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers, 15 yards +2% MIN +1.8 pts
Q2 3:52 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +1% MIN +1.4 pts
Q3 12:10 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB +0.7 pts
Q3 8:55 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB +0.7 pts
Q3 0:46 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB +1.0 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:59 Blocked punt by the VikingsSpecial teams +18% MIN MIN: Field goal
2 Q1 11:23 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +5% GB MIN: Field goal
3 Q1 10:41 G. Joseph made 21-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +8% GB MIN: Punt
4 Q1 10:38 Return touchdown by the PackersSpecial teams +17% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q1 10:22 The Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% MIN MIN: Punt
6 Q1 6:37 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +9% MIN GB: Opp touchdown
7 Q1 5:33 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expectedThe Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the PackersSpecial teams +35% GB MIN: Missed field goal
8 Q2 6:00 The Vikings were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% GB MIN: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Eric Stokes (GB CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Rashan Gary (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Krys Barnes (GB LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Garrett Bradbury (MIN C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Blake Brandel (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jonathan Bullard (MIN DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Akayleb Evans (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 0% · Packers 100%

Final margin
Packers by 24
Luck in points
6.3 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 17.7
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 19% · Packers 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2022 games · Vikings · Packers

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