luckadjusted

Week 17 2022 · January 1, 2023

Colts at Giants, Week 17 2022: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Colts 38–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Giants win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Giants were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:33 left): the Colts converted 3rd & 8, worth 17 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 10
New York Giants 38

January 1, 2023 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Giants −5.5

Luck index +11 Giants about even · −11 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 1, Giants win 9.

  1. 1 IND 9 NYG 3
  2. 2 IND 10 NYG 13
  3. 3 IND 19 NYG 23
  4. 4 IND 14 NYG 21
  5. 5 IND 14 NYG 24
  6. 6 IND 7 NYG 19
  7. 7 IND 7 NYG 22
  8. 8 IND 14 NYG 32
  9. 9 IND 7 NYG 29
  10. 10 IND 7 NYG 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 11% of them, Giants 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+0.5%
Colts by 9–161.9%
Colts by 1–87.5%
Level after regulation1.6%
Giants by 1–819.5%
Giants by 9–1626.9%
Giants by 17+42.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.5 points to the Giants: the final margin was Giants by 28, without the luck Giants by 21.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Gano, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 48 yds missed · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 7 for 60 yards, Giants 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:43 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 5 yards +4% IND +1.2 pts
Q1 7:21 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NYG +1.5 pts
Q2 11:52 Tripping on the Giants, 10 yards +3% IND +1.5 pts
Q2 10:38 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +3% NYG +0.9 pts
Q2 9:06 Illegal Use of Hands on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% IND +0.2 pts
Q2 2:50 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Dexter Lawrence), 5 yards +2% IND +1.2 pts
Q4 13:23 Defensive Offside on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +2.5 pts
Q4 13:19 Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts (Bobby Okereke), 10 yards 0% NYG +2.0 pts
Q4 11:57 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards 0% NYG +0.9 pts
Q4 9:59 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards 0% NYG +0.9 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:43 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 1319 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +4% IND IND: Punt
2 Q1 7:21 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% NYG NYG: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:33 The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +17% IND IND: Field goal
4 Q1 2:29 C. McLaughlin made 23-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +9% NYG IND: Punt
5 Q2 10:44 The Giants converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% NYG NYG: Touchdown
6 Q2 9:10 S. Barkley dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 63 catchable balls before this +4% IND NYG: Touchdown
7 Q2 7:32 The Giants converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% NYG NYG: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:54 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Colts threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 40% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the GiantsSpecial teams +13% NYG IND: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Adoree' Jackson (NYG CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Rodarius Williams (NYG CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Joshua Ezeudu (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Matt Ryan (IND QB), out, replaced by s.ehlinger · 4.0 pts
  • Yannick Ngakoue (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Kenny Moore (IND CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jonathan Taylor (IND RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Isaiah Rodgers (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 0% · Giants 100%

Final margin
Giants by 28
Luck in points
6.5 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 21.5
Replay with same day's form
Colts 11% · Giants 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2022 games · Colts · Giants

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